Gold in 2025-2026: Strong supporting factors and long-term trends investors need to know

Why Gold Is a Prominent Investment Choice Right Now

The latest gold price has surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, reflecting fundamental shifts in the global market. Many investors find traditional investment options offer limited returns, making safe-haven assets like gold increasingly attractive.

For the Thai market, 96.5% gold bars have risen above 62,000 THB per baht of gold, significantly surpassing the previous analyst target.

Four Main Factors Driving Gold Prices Currently

Trade Tensions Between Major Powers

The current global trade situation shows signs of imbalance, with announcements of increased import tariffs and export controls on key minerals. This uncertainty has led investors to rely more on secure assets.

Central Bank Rate Cuts

The ongoing cycle of interest rate reductions has weakened the dollar, making gold in other currencies more attractive. Additionally, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Central Bank Gold Accumulation Worldwide

Central banks in emerging markets have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years. This movement reflects a trend to diversify away from a single currency, especially after major financial institutions experienced asset losses last year.

Emerging Market Countries’ Financial Strategies

Efforts to create alternative currencies backed by valuable assets have significantly increased demand for safe assets.

Leading Financial Institutions’ Outlook on Gold Price Trends

Goldman Sachs Estimates

Leading analysis institutions have raised their target price to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the previous target of $4,300, due to strong central bank demand and continuous inflows into reserve funds.

Swiss Financial Institutions’ Perspective

Swiss banking giants forecast prices reaching $3,500 per ounce, mainly driven by record-high central bank gold reserves.

Thailand Market Projections

Using exchange rates to convert global targets, Thailand may see prices of 75,000-80,000 THB per baht of gold by 2026, despite short-term profit-taking pressures.

Risks and Factors That Could Cause Gold Prices to Fall

Successful trade negotiations could negate key supporting factors. If tensions ease, investors might shift to other investment options.

Profit-taking after rapid gains is common, and high trading volumes could lead to price corrections to test support levels.

A strengthening of major currencies could pressure prices downward. If economic data shows unexpected strength, central bank decisions might change.

Delays in rate cuts if inflation control does not progress as expected, and prolonged high interest rates, could challenge non-yielding assets.

Price Range and Key Points for Analysis

The first support at $3,859 is a critical test point if prices decline. The second support is at $3,782.

Current resistance is at $4,084–$4,113, serving as a benchmark to assess bullish momentum.

An RSI in overbought zones indicates potential short-term consolidation, even though the overall trend remains upward.

Overall Situation Assessment

The gold market outlook for 2025–2026 shows support from fundamental factors. While short-term corrections are possible, the long-term trend remains bullish.

Investors considering gold should understand its volatility driven by various factors. Timing entries and setting appropriate risk management points are essential strategies.

Gold continues to be a versatile hedge asset, but investors must monitor global developments, interest rates, and capital inflows to adjust strategies accordingly.