Will the international gold price per ounce approach $5,000? Investors must know the 2025 gold trend analysis

By the end of 2024 and early 2025, international gold prices continuously hit record highs, surging from $4,300 to over $4,400. What is behind this market trend, and is there still an opportunity ahead? Many investors are pondering the same question: Is it too late to enter now?

Why Are International Gold Prices Continuing to Surge? Three Core Factors Driving the Rally

To understand the current gold price trend, we must first clarify the fundamental reasons behind its rise.

First factor: Hedging demand driven by policy uncertainty

At the start of the new year, a series of trade policy adjustments directly triggered market anxiety. Whenever international situations become uncertain, large amounts of safe-haven capital flood into the market. Historical data shows that during similar policy upheavals (such as the US-China trade tensions in 2018), gold typically rises by 5-10% in the short term. The current environment of uncertainty is reinforcing gold’s appeal as a “safe asset.”

Second factor: Federal Reserve rate cut expectations boosting gold’s relative value

This is the most direct factor influencing gold prices. Each rate cut by the Federal Reserve weakens the US dollar and reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold (since gold does not generate interest). Simply put: The lower the interest rate, the more attractive gold becomes.

According to CME interest rate futures, the probability of further rate cuts in December is as high as 84.7%. You can use the Fed’s policy outlook as a reference for short-term gold price movements—gold tends to be especially volatile around official rate decisions.

Interestingly, after the rate cut in September, gold prices actually declined. The reason is that the market had already priced in the rate cut expectations, and the Fed signaled it would not continue to cut rates significantly. This indicates that gold prices are influenced not just by whether rates are cut, but also by the extent of those cuts.

Third factor: Global central banks continue to increase gold reserves

According to data from the World Gold Council, net gold purchases by central banks worldwide reached 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, hitting a recent high. More importantly, surveys show that 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next five years while reducing dollar allocations.

This trend is significant—it reflects a subtle shift in global trust in the US dollar, and this structural reserve transfer will fundamentally support gold prices in the medium to long term.

What other factors are pushing up international gold prices?

In addition to the three main drivers above, the following factors are also noteworthy:

High global debt levels (IMF statistics show $307 trillion) force countries to maintain low interest rates, which long-term suppresses real interest rates and indirectly boosts gold’s attractiveness. Geopolitical tensions (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East situations) continue to stimulate safe-haven demand. Coupled with social media and news amplification, short-term capital flows rush in regardless of cost, reinforcing the upward trend.

However, be aware that these short-term factors may cause sharp volatility and do not necessarily indicate a sustained long-term trend. Especially for Taiwanese investors, currency risk against the US dollar remains a concern.

What do institutions think? How much more can gold prices rise?

Despite recent corrections, major global investment banks are generally optimistic about gold’s outlook:

JPMorgan considers this adjustment a “healthy correction,” raising its target price to $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $4,900 by 2026. Bank of America is more aggressive, setting a target of $5,000, with some strategists hinting that gold could hit $6,000 next year.

Even the physical gold market’s signals support this—major jewelry brands’ gold jewelry prices remain stable above 1,100 TWD per gram, without significant drops.

Is now the right time to buy gold? Your investment style determines the answer

After understanding the logic behind the rally, the key question becomes: What should you do? The answer depends on your investment style and risk tolerance.

If you are a short-term trader, volatility can be an opportunity. During rapid surges or dips, you can see the market’s momentum clearly, with ample liquidity and room for operation. But this requires experience and strong mental resilience.

If you are a beginner aiming for short-term trading, start with small amounts and avoid blindly increasing positions. Use economic calendars to track US data releases, and focus on trading during the most volatile US market hours. Panic selling can lead to quick losses—this is a common mistake among beginners.

If you want to buy physical gold for long-term preservation, be mentally prepared. Although the long-term outlook is bullish, there could be 20-30% short-term declines along the way. Whether you can withstand such fluctuations is the first test. Gold’s annual volatility averages 19.4%, which is not lower than stocks. Transaction costs for physical gold (generally 5-20%) are also hidden risks.

If you want to allocate gold within your portfolio, it’s fine, but don’t let it become the main holding. Diversification is always safer than “all in.”

If you aim to maximize returns, consider a dual strategy of “long-term holding + short-term trading”—taking advantage of the sharp fluctuations around US market data releases for short-term gains while maintaining medium- to long-term positions. This approach requires experience and risk management skills.

Final risk warning

The cycle of international gold price fluctuations is very long. You might buy it for hedging and see it double over ten years, but it could also halve in value during that period—mental preparation is essential. Remember one rule: never put all your assets into a single asset class, no matter how certain it seems.

Gold is indeed a globally recognized reserve asset, but it is also a high-volatility commodity. While the current trend may not be over, participating moderately and managing risks is always smarter than blindly chasing highs.