New Year Precious Metals Market Booms! Gold and Silver Surge to Record Highs, Trading Opportunities and Concerns in the High Gold and Silver Pattern

Opening Gains Strength, Precious Metals Welcome a New Year Surge

On the first trading day of 2026, the precious metals market demonstrated vibrant vitality. On Friday morning, spot gold opened strongly, with the highest gold price in Asian trading reaching around $4,353 per ounce, nearly a $35 increase for the day. Silver also performed well, soaring to $73.00 per ounce, with an intraday gain of about 2%. Additionally, palladium and platinum also showed solid performance, each recording close to 2% gains.

This start-of-year rally is not accidental. According to Bloomberg, gold and silver achieved their best annual performance since 1979 in 2025, and this momentum has continued into the new year. The US dollar index slightly declined by 0.1%, and the weakening dollar has provided strong support for precious metals.

Historical Context vs. Recent Outlook, Opportunities in the High Gold and Silver Era

Currently, gold and silver prices are at historic highs, reflecting a deep reevaluation of monetary policy and asset allocation. Traders generally believe that expectations of further US rate cuts and a weak dollar will continue to drive precious metals higher in 2026.

However, the high gold and silver landscape also faces new challenges. As gold and silver weights in investment portfolios exceed preset allocations, passive tracking funds face index rebalancing pressures. TD Securities senior commodities strategist Daniel Ghali pointed out that within the next two weeks, 13% of open silver contracts on the NYMEX could be concentrated sell-offs, which may significantly impact short-term prices.

Gold Technicals: Bullish Dominance, but Risks of High-Level Consolidation Emerge

From a technical perspective, gold approaching the $4,350 per ounce region has demonstrated bullish control. However, this high-level zone also tends to be prone to short-term oscillations and profit-taking pressures.

In the medium term, if gold can hold key support zones (usually including the lower boundary of the recent upward channel and dense previous highs) after a pullback, the upward trend remains strong. An additional focus is whether the pattern of “strong consolidation followed by another rally” can continue. Conversely, if rebalancing sell-offs and dollar rebounds resonate, breaking below these key supports could lead to a phase of “high-level pullback—re-pricing,” significantly expanding volatility ranges.

On the trading front, gold’s advantage lies in its stronger safe-haven and asset allocation attributes. Under unchanged rate cut expectations, adjustments tend to attract long-term capital re-entry more easily. However, if short-term shifts occur—such as “diminished rate cut expectations, dollar reversal, and risk appetite recovery”—upside space may be limited, and the trend could shift toward high-level consolidation.

Silver Trends: Greater Flexibility, but Higher Volatility Risks

Compared to gold’s stability, silver exhibits greater volatility in this round of rally. This stems from silver’s dual identity as both a financial asset and an industrial metal—market sentiment surges often amplify silver’s fluctuations.

Currently, silver continues to rise above $70 per ounce with a strong trend, but this also means it is more susceptible to rapid capital-driven disturbances. TD Securities mentioned that “short-term Comex silver positions could see significant reductions,” highlighting silver’s risk—once passive funds sell off en masse, combined with holiday trading thinness, silver may experience “faster declines than gold.”

Structurally, the key for silver moving forward is whether it can hold previous breakout levels and key support zones like moving averages during corrections. If the pullback is limited and quickly stabilizes, it could evolve into a “high-level strong consolidation,” accumulating energy for the next surge. If support fails, deeper corrections may occur, with volatility potentially surpassing that of gold.

Short-Term Rhythm Under Dual Forces

Looking ahead, the market will face two opposing forces. One is the trend support from rate cut expectations and dollar weakness; the other is phase pressures from index rebalancing and weaker liquidity during holidays.

A more realistic expectation is that gold and silver will maintain their strong tone, but with several sharp declines or quick profit-taking episodes along the way, especially with silver’s volatility likely to intensify. Investors should focus on three variables: the direction of US interest rate expectations, the USD exchange rate, and capital flow disruptions caused by rebalancing windows. In the context of high gold and silver prices, timing is more important than chasing highs.