Copper prices surge to historic highs, with many institutions optimistic about a rise in 2026

Both New Copper and London Copper hit new records. On December 24th, LME Copper surged to a historic high of $12,276 per ton. On December 26th, COMEX Copper also showed strong performance, rising over 3% to $5.80 per pound, reaching a five-month high. Since entering 2025, LME Copper has increased by a total of 37%, with a fierce upward momentum.

Supply Shock Coupled with Trade Expectations Drive Copper Prices Higher

There are two main forces fueling this rapid rise in copper prices.

Major copper mines worldwide have experienced consecutive significant incidents, leading to a noticeable decline in supply. At the same time, market concerns about a new round of US tariffs triggering a buying spree have caused large amounts of copper to flood into the US for stockpiling, depleting spot inventories in other regions. The combination of limited supply and a buying frenzy on the demand side has resulted in an increasingly severe supply-demand imbalance.

From a data perspective, the 37% increase since early 2025 reflects deep market concerns about the future of copper supply. Tariff expectations and mine shutdowns have become the main drivers pushing up copper prices.

Will 2026 See Further Gains? Multiple Institutions Offer Optimistic Predictions

Looking ahead, major Wall Street investment banks are raising their copper price forecasts.

JPMorgan Chase predicts that in 2026, the global refined copper supply will face a shortfall of approximately 330,000 tons. Based on this, the bank forecasts copper prices will reach $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, with an average annual price of about $12,075 per ton. UBS Group’s revised forecast range is $11,500–$13,000 per ton, also indicating an upward trend.

Citi’s stance is even more optimistic. The bank believes that US stockpiling will exacerbate supply shortages in other regions, and copper prices could rise to around $13,000 per ton by Q2 2026. If the US dollar remains under pressure and the Federal Reserve further cuts interest rates, the safe-haven appeal of copper will significantly increase, driving investment capital to flow in rapidly. Copper prices could even reach the level of $15,000 per ton.

Bull Market Logic Becomes Clearer

From structural tightness on the supply side, strategic stockpiling on the demand side, to macro factors like a weakening US dollar and expectations of rate cuts, the logic behind copper’s rise has formed a complete closed loop. Over the next year, the focus in the copper market is not whether prices will rise, but how high they can go.