Analysis of 9999 Gold Price Trends: Is There Still Room for Growth in 2025?

Entering 2025, international spot gold (XAUUSD) remains a focal point in the investment market. Since the historic high of $4,400 per ounce last October, the market’s attention has shifted to a core question: How will the price of 9999 gold develop in the future?

To understand the current gold market, first recognize the fundamental factors driving gold prices higher. This article will analyze the logic behind this rally to help investors make more informed decisions.

How Do Expert Institutions View the 2025 Gold Market?

Despite recent fluctuations in gold prices, major international investment institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold.

J.P. Morgan Commodity Research Team believes the recent correction is a “market self-repair,” and has raised its Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs Group maintains an optimistic forecast, reaffirming a gold target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

Bank of America is the most bullish, not only raising its 2026 target price to $5,000 but also predicting that gold could reach $6,000 next year, according to recent strategists.

These forecasts are supported by logical reasoning. So, what is the core driving force behind the rise in 9999 gold prices?

Three Major Factors Driving the Rise of 9999 Gold Prices

Factor 1: Policy Uncertainty Sparks Safe-Haven Demand

Since 2025, a series of economic policy adjustments have directly boosted risk-avoidance sentiment in the market. Historical data shows that during periods of policy turmoil (such as the US-China trade friction in 2018), gold typically experiences short-term gains of 5-10%. This is because, in uncertain environments, investors tend to allocate assets to safe havens.

Factor 2: The Inverse Relationship Between Interest Rate Movements and Gold Prices

The Federal Reserve’s policy stance is crucial. Gold prices have a clear negative correlation with real interest rates: Interest rate declines → Gold attractiveness increases

According to CME interest rate futures data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting is as high as 84.7%. When interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, naturally directing funds into the gold market. This also explains why gold prices almost move in tandem with Fed expectations.

Factor 3: Global Central Banks Continue to Increase Gold Reserves

According to the latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC), net gold purchases by central banks in Q3 2025 reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months, total gold purchases amounted to about 634 tons, slightly below the same period in 2024 but still well above historical norms.

A survey released by the WGC this year shows that 76% of responding central banks plan to “moderately or significantly increase” their gold holdings over the next five years, while most expect to reduce their dollar reserves. This reflects a global reassessment of gold’s value as a reserve asset.

Additional Factors Supporting the Rise of 9999 Gold Prices

Beyond the core drivers above, several other factors continue to reinforce the upward trend of gold:

High Global Debt and Loose Monetary Policies — As of 2025, global debt totals $307 trillion, limiting the scope for interest rate hikes and favoring accommodative monetary policies, which tend to lower real interest rates.

Declining Confidence in the US Dollar — When the dollar faces depreciation pressures or confidence wanes, gold priced in USD tends to benefit.

Geopolitical Risks — Ongoing conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and instability in the Middle East continue to boost demand for precious metals as safe havens.

Social Media and Short-term Capital Resonance — Continuous media attention and investment sentiment on social platforms attract large amounts of short-term capital, amplifying short-term price surges.

Is It Too Late to Enter 9999 Gold Now? How Should Investors Act?

Based on the above analysis, the medium- and long-term support factors for gold remain unchanged. But whether to enter now depends on your investment style and risk tolerance:

For experienced short-term traders, the current volatile environment offers ample trading opportunities. Market liquidity is sufficient, and the logic behind price movements is relatively clear, especially during sharp fluctuations, making it easier to grasp the trend. It is recommended to track US economic data releases via economic calendars to assist decision-making.

For novice investors wishing to participate in short-term volatility, discipline is essential: start with small amounts to test the waters, and never blindly increase positions. Losing control of your mindset can lead to rapid losses.

For those planning to hold physical gold long-term, mental preparation is necessary. The annual average fluctuation of 9999 gold is 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%. Expect significant volatility along the way, and be psychologically prepared. Also note that physical gold trading costs are relatively high—typically 5-20%—making frequent trading less suitable.

If including gold in a portfolio, it is a reasonable choice but should be controlled in proportion. Avoid putting all your funds into a single asset; diversification remains a more prudent strategy.

Advanced approach: combining long- and short-term strategies — maintaining medium- and long-term holdings while capitalizing on short-term price movements around US market data releases can be effective. However, this requires experience and risk management skills.

Important Tips for Investing in Gold

Tip 1: Gold has a long cycle. As a store of value, an investment horizon of over 10 years is needed to fully realize gold’s value. But during this period, prices can double or halve.

Tip 2: Do not concentrate all your funds in gold. Diversification can effectively spread risk.

Tip 3: For Taiwanese investors, the trend of 9999 gold prices also depends on USD/TWD exchange rate fluctuations, which directly impact final returns.

Overall, gold remains a globally recognized reserve asset with a relatively stable position. The 2025 gold market is not over, but be cautious to avoid blindly chasing highs, especially around key economic data releases.