Expect new turning points in gold prices in 2026.. Will it reach $5000?

Path 2025 has revealed new dynamics in the precious metals market, where the ounce of gold reached a historic peak of $4,300 in October, then retreated toward $4,000 with the arrival of November. This volatility was not random but reflected a deep struggle between upward pull forces and corrective pressures, raising an urgent question: Will 2026 see a new leap toward $5,000, or will the precious metal enter a phase of relative stability?

Key Drivers of Gold Demand

Flow of Global Capital Towards Safe Havens

Demand for gold increased significantly in Q2 2025, reaching 1,249 tons, up 3% annually, but the monetary value jumped an interesting 45% to $132 billion (. This disparity between volume and value reflects the sharp rise in gold prices themselves.

Gold ETFs )ETFs( experienced unprecedented inflows, with assets under management rising to $472 billion, and holdings increasing to 3,838 tons, very close to the all-time peak of 3,929 tons. This proximity to the record level indicates that institutional demand still has room to grow, supporting expectations of higher prices in 2026.

North America accounted for over 55% of total global demand with 345.7 tons, followed by Europe with 148.4 tons, then Asia with 117.8 tons. In the US alone, gold fund inflows reached $21 billion in the first half of the year, offsetting declines in traditional consumer demand.

Bloomberg data showed that about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time in 2024-2025, driven by extensive media coverage and strong upward expectations. New investors increased their holdings even during correction periods, reinforcing price support.

Role of Central Banks in Attracting Precious Metals

Global central banks accelerated their gold reserve accumulation at an unprecedented rate. In Q1 2025 alone, central banks added 244 tons, a rate 24% higher than the five-year quarterly average.

Even more interesting, 44% of the world’s central banks held gold reserves in 2025, compared to only 37% in 2024. This shift reflects a growing desire to diversify assets away from full reliance on the US dollar.

China alone added over 65 tons in the first half, continuing a 22-month buying streak. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons. India was also among the top buyers. This strong institutional demand is expected to continue until the end of 2026, especially as emerging markets seek to protect their local currencies from exchange rate volatility.

Supply Challenges Ahead

Mine production in Q1 2025 totaled 856 tons, a slight 1% annual increase. This limited growth is insufficient to fill the widening gap between rising demand and limited supply.

Recycled gold declined by 1% during the same period, as holders preferred to keep their gold assets rather than sell, based on expectations of continued price increases. This behavior significantly deepened the supply shortage.

On the cost side, the average global extraction cost rose to around $1,470 per ounce by mid-2025, the highest in a decade. This increase limits producers’ ability to ramp up output quickly, even as prices rise, creating a structural support for higher prices.

Monetary and Financial Context Supporting the Rise

Interest Rate Cuts and Expectations

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%. This was the second cut since the easing cycle began in December 2024.

Fed data indicated further cuts could occur if the labor market weakens or economic growth slows. Some Fed members, including Michelle Bowman, forecast two additional cuts before the end of 2025.

Market expectations )according to Vedutouch( price in a new 25 basis point cut at the December 2025 meeting. BlackRock reports suggested the Fed might target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. These cuts would reduce real bond yields, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

European and Japanese Central Banks

The European Central Bank moved toward temporary monetary tightening to combat inflation, while the Bank of Japan maintained its easing policy. This divergence created a conflicting environment that, in fact, highlighted gold’s role as a global hedge, as the imbalance in monetary policies increased demand for safe-haven metals.

Inflationary Pressures and Sovereign Debt

The World Bank projected a 35% increase in gold prices in 2025 but warned that expectations might decline in 2026 as inflationary pressures ease. Nonetheless, prices will remain high compared to previous years.

The IMF noted that global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. This debt anxiety drove investors toward gold as a hedge against loss of purchasing power.

The US dollar weakened by 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year until November 21, 2025, influenced by rate cut expectations. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to 4.07% during the same period. This dual decline boosted institutional demand for gold.

Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Demand

Trade tensions between the US and China and instability in the Middle East prompted investors to seek safe havens. Reuters reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased gold demand by 7% annually.

As tensions escalated around the Taiwan Strait and global energy fears, gold prices surged past $3,400 in July. With ongoing geopolitical doubts, prices broke through $4,300 in mid-October. This timeline shows how quickly gold reacts to crises, supporting the possibility of further jumps in 2026 if new shocks occur.

Major hedge funds increased their gold positions in Q3 2025 by 42%, according to Bloomberg Economics data.

2026 Gold Price Forecasts by Major Global Banks

HSBC expects a breakthrough beyond $5,000

HSBC predicts a bullish wave pushing gold to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected annual average of $4,600 )compared to $3,455 average in 2025(. The forecast is based on rising geopolitical risks, increasing global debt, and new investor buying waves.

Bank of America supports the bullish scenario

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak in 2026, with an expected average of $4,400. However, it warned of a possible short-term correction if profit-taking begins.

Goldman Sachs adjusts upward

Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 forecast to $4,900, citing stronger inflows into ETFs and continued central bank acquisitions.

J.P. Morgan projects $5,055

Based on their research, J.P. Morgan expects gold to reach approximately $5,055 by mid-2026. The price has already surpassed their 2025 targets at the start of Q4.

Broader Range of Expectations

Major analysts focus on a range between $4,800 and $5,000 as potential peaks in 2026, with an average annual between $4,200 and $4,800.

Gold Price Outlook in the Middle East

Central banks in the region are steadily increasing their reserves. The Central Bank of Egypt added 1 ton in Q1 2025, while the Qatar Central Bank added 3 tons.

Egypt: Expectations point to a significant rise in 2026. Estimates suggest gold could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce, an increase of approximately 158%.

Saudi Arabia and UAE: If the ambitious scenario of $5,000 per ounce materializes, this would translate )at a fixed exchange rate( to about 18,750–19,000 SAR and roughly 18,375–19,000 AED. These estimates depend on currency stability and continued global demand.

Risks to the Expected Rise

Despite overall optimism, HSBC warns that upward momentum may weaken in H2 2026. A possible scenario involves a correction toward $4,200 if investors start profit-taking, but a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a real economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the market’s “credibility,” i.e., the ability of gold to maintain gains amid weak industrial demand.

J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to strategic shifts viewing it as a long-term asset.

Technical Analysis: Temporary Neutral State Before Movement

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 after touching $4,381.44 on October 20. The price broke a rising channel but remains attached to the main short- to medium-term upward trendline.

Strong support appears at $4,000, a critical level to determine the next move. A clear break below could target the $3,800 zone )50% Fibonacci retracement( before a potential rebound.

On the upside, $4,200 is the first strong resistance, followed by $4,400 and $4,680. The RSI )Relative Strength Index( stands at 50, indicating a fully neutral market, with no clear overbought or oversold bias.

The MACD signal line remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend. Technical analysis suggests gold will continue trading within a range of $4,000 to $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Summary: 2026 Outlook Between Hopes and Caution

Gold price forecasts generally lean toward bullish scenarios, but the final outcome will depend on multiple dynamics. If real yields continue to decline, the dollar remains weak, and central bank buying persists, a breakout beyond $5,000 in 2026 becomes a serious possibility.

Conversely, if inflation drops quickly and market confidence returns, the metal may enter a long-term stabilization phase, potentially preventing ambitious levels. What remains clear is that gold has maintained its position as a key hedge tool in a world of increasing risks, and gold price forecasts in 2026 will remain central to global investor decisions.