Gold analyst forecasts for today, November 10: comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis

Current Situation: Gold Attracts More Buyers

The yellow metal started the trading session with a noticeable price increase, successfully regaining its position above the $4,000 per ounce mark. This rise came amid a decline in the US dollar’s purchasing power and widespread recalibration of monetary policy expectations by global investors.

The current scene reflects growing demand for safe havens, as decision-makers seek to protect their portfolios in an uncertain economic environment. Weak economic data—including declining consumer sentiment and rising layoffs—played a pivotal role in driving this buying frenzy.

Fundamental Factors Supporting the Upward Movement

Weak dollar paves the way for gold

The US dollar experienced a significant correction after a series of consecutive gains in the previous period. This decline provided a golden opportunity for the precious metal to restore its appeal among investors worldwide.

This decrease in dollar strength coincided with a retreat in US bond yields from their peaks, reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets as an income-generating investment. The natural result was a shift of investment flows toward gold as a safer haven.

Spot prices of the metal rose to the range of $4,050–4,060 during Asian and European trading, indicating buyers’ attempts to establish a new price floor at the psychologically important level of $4,000.

Institutional movements confirm the bullish trend

Data from gold exchange-traded funds, especially SPDR Gold Trust, showed a clear increase in holdings. This reflects large institutional capital inflows driven more by defensive motives than speculative ones.

While actual demand from Asian markets—such as India and China—remains limited due to current price volatility, massive institutional flows are the real driver behind the current bullish shift.

US Labor Market: Indicators Approaching Critical Stages

US employment data for October showed clear signs of weakness and deterioration, with tangible job losses in the public and retail sectors, and a surge in layoffs reaching levels not seen in about two years.

Many attribute this weakness to slowing demand for goods and services, as well as increasing reliance by companies on AI technologies to cut costs and improve productivity.

These data prompted analysts to raise the probability of a rate cut in December to 61%-67% according to CME FedWatch tools. Concerns about the spread of employment weakness to additional sectors increase the likelihood of a negative impact on overall economic growth.

In this context, gold benefits clearly as an alternative asset, as the so-called “opportunity cost” decreases significantly compared to other investment tools in an easing monetary environment.

Government Shutdown: Near End and Pending Economic Data

The Senate took a significant step by approving the procedural vote on the government funding bill, opening the prospects for reopening federal agencies within a few days.

Although this alleviates immediate political fears, it means markets will soon face a flood of economic data accumulated over about 40 days. These data could contain major surprises capable of radically reshaping growth and monetary policy expectations.

Investors are paying close attention to this issue, trying to balance reducing administrative risks on one hand and anticipating major economic results on the other.

Risk Appetite Decline Boosts Gold Demand

Global markets experienced successive waves of selling pressure, especially after a comprehensive reassessment of risks following a strong prior rally. Technology and AI stocks were among the sectors most affected by collective profit-taking.

Investors have begun prioritizing capital preservation over high risk-taking. This shift is clearly reflected in the performance of European and Asian markets as well, indicating a global move toward caution.

This contraction in risk appetite has channeled some investment liquidity back into defensive assets led by gold. Not out of panic, but as a strategic calculation to reduce exposure to risks.

Geopolitical Developments Maintain Alertness

Geopolitical developments worldwide continue to influence investment behavior, especially in sensitive regions related to supplies and energy. Even in the absence of a direct crisis, these tensions create ongoing preemptive anxiety.

This concern prompts investors to increase hedging in their portfolios. In this context, gold acts as a protective tool against any sudden developments that could destabilize economic or political stability.

Price Movement Analysis: Monday Chart Reading

Four-hour timeframe: Building a new support base

Gold started the trading session with relatively steady movement, supported by limited but growing trading volume. The precious metal attempted to maintain its position above $4,000, aiming to establish a new support level.

During the early hours of the European session, the price moved within a narrow range between $4,037 and $4,062, with a clear balance between buying and selling forces.

The four-hour chart reveals the formation of a strong support base near $3,928, the point from which the current upward movement originated.

The gradual rise that followed pushed the metal to test a sensitive resistance zone at $4,046–4,062. This area represents the upper boundary of the recent sideways trading range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilized at 65.6, reflecting an improvement in bullish momentum without reaching overbought levels.

Trading volume reached approximately 56,000 contracts, supporting the possibility of continued positive movement in the short term.

Critical support levels

$3,928: This level is the foundation of current support, maintaining price stability.

$3,880: A secondary support level that may come into play if new selling pressure emerges; breaking it could mean further short-term decline.

$3,825: A deep support zone representing the last line of defense before a broader corrective phase.

Main resistance levels

$4,046: A near-term and critical resistance; a clear breakout above it with a close will signal continued upward movement.

$4,062: The highest price of the day so far; surpassing it could open the door to higher levels.

$4,100: The next potential target if bullish momentum persists; breaking it could shift the medium-term trend upward.

Gold Analysts’ Outlook Today: Possible Scenarios

Bullish scenario (Most likely)

Gold is expected to continue its attempts to push toward the resistance zone of $4,046–4,062. A clear breakout above this zone with a close on the four-hour chart will give a strong signal for further gains.

In this case, a move toward $4,100 and then $4,150 as natural targets is possible. Continued positive momentum with prices staying above short-term averages will support this scenario.

Bearish scenario (Less likely at present)

If the price fails to break through the current resistance or drops below $4,000, we may see a gradual return of selling pressure.

This would lead to testing the main support level at $3,928, and a break below it could open the door toward $3,880 and possibly further down.

Overall assessment

The current outlook for today leans toward cautious optimism. The primary trend favors a gradual rise as long as prices stay above $4,040.

Any decline below this level could temporarily turn the picture neutral, awaiting a new catalyst from dollar movements or upcoming economic data.

Performance of Other Precious Metals

Silver: Rise supported by industrial demand

Silver prices held steady at $49.24 per ounce, recording a daily increase of 2.10%. This strong performance is attributed to growing industrial demand from solar energy and electronics sectors, along with continued investor interest.

Technically, silver shows greater resilience compared to its metal counterparts, influenced by a mix of overall momentum and specific industrial supply and demand factors.

Platinum: Limited rise but positive annual trend

Platinum reached around $1,570 per ounce, with a daily increase of about 1.75%. While the daily rise may seem modest, the annual performance shows a relatively outperforming trend among precious metals.

This performance is driven by limited global supply and rising demand from jewelry and industrial sectors.

Palladium: Fully dependent on industrial demand

Palladium’s price reached approximately $1,373 per ounce, with a limited daily increase of about 0.59%. Despite the modest rise, the metal remains highly sensitive to industrial uses, especially in automotive catalytic converters and modern technologies.

Palladium’s performance is primarily linked to environmental regulations and industrial developments rather than purely market investment movements.