Why Gold Continues to Rise: Trend Analysis and Investment Opportunities in 2025-2026

Current Market Context: Global Financial Institutions View Gold in a New Light

The gold market is consolidating at an all-time high. Gold prices have broken the $4,000 per ounce level and in October 2025, hit a new record high of $4,181 per ounce. Compared to the start of the year, this increase represents over 66% growth in just 7 months.

This recent price rally differs from previous patterns because the speed of increase from $3,000 to $4,000 took only 7 months, whereas earlier it took 14 months to move from $2,000 to $3,000.

In the Thai market, 96.5% pure gold bars have surpassed the target of 62,000 THB per baht of gold, prompting market analysts to revise their outlook and set new targets between 75,000 and 80,000 THB by the end of 2026.

Viewing Gold from the Perspective of Financial Institutions: Big Players’ Opinions

Goldman Sachs sets a bold target

Major Wall Street firms have significantly revised their gold price targets. Recently, Goldman Sachs set a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from their previous target of $4,300.

According to analyst Lina Thomas from Goldman Sachs, the main driver is sustained demand for gold from central banks worldwide, along with inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (Gold ETF) supporting the high prices.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices in 2026 to $3,300, reflecting that institutional and central bank buying demand exceeds market expectations.

UBS: Accumulation of gold as a key mechanism

Leading Swiss bank UBS views that gold prices should reach $3,500 per ounce by December 2026. The primary reason is the unprecedented pattern of central bank gold accumulation.

According to strategist Joni Teves from UBS, central banks worldwide added over 1,200 tons of gold reserves in just one year (2025), indicating a strategic shift in global financial policies.

Market Structure Driving Prices: Why Is Gold Still Rising?

Major trade conflicts

Trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, with announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese imports at rates up to 100%, effective from November 1, 2026.

This trade conflict creates widespread uncertainty in global markets, prompting investors worldwide to reassess risks and seek “safe haven” assets. Gold, as a traditional safe asset, has attracted increased interest.

Changing interest rate policies

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) began a rate-cutting cycle, reducing rates by 0.25% in September 2026. Markets expect further rate cuts in October and December.

Lower interest rates weaken the dollar. As the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD becomes more attractive to holders of other currencies. Generally, gold prices tend to move inversely to real interest rates.

Changes in central bank reserves

This is a crucial structural factor. Central banks in emerging markets have increased their gold reserves by over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years (2025-2027), and continue to buy more in 2026.

The total global gold reserves are now approximately 36,699 tons, the highest in decades. This shift is driven by strategies to de-dollarize (De-dollarization), which accelerated after the Russian central bank asset freeze in 2022.

Potential of gold-backed digital currencies

There are rumors that BRICS countries are preparing a digital currency backed by gold to facilitate international trade among member nations. This move challenges the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system.

Risk Factors That Could Alter the Outlook

Although most current targets point upward, certain scenarios could reverse the price rally:

Negotiation of trade conflicts – If the US and China reach an agreement and resolve tensions, gold prices could decline as uncertainty diminishes.

Profit-taking pressure – After nearly 8 weeks of continuous gains, investors might start closing positions and taking profits, especially if technical indicators show overbought conditions.

Strengthening of the US dollar – If the US economy outperforms expectations, the Fed might delay further rate cuts, causing the dollar to strengthen and putting downward pressure on gold prices.

Prolonged high interest rates – If inflation remains uncontrolled, the Fed may keep interest rates high longer than expected, challenging the sustainability of the bullish trend.

Technical Analysis: Reading Price Signals

Price Surge Characteristics(

Recently, gold prices surged over $250 per ounce within just a few days, indicating strong buying momentum well above average.

This rapid increase is a positive sign for medium-term outlooks and suggests institutional investors are entering with large positions.

) RSI and other trading indicators

The Relative Strength Index ###RSI( for gold is currently in overbought territory, often signaling a short-term correction. However, if buying pressure persists, RSI can remain high, indicating a strong bullish trend.

) Market trend patterns

According to technical analysis theory, markets typically go through three phases: accumulation, public participation, and distribution. Currently, gold appears to be in the public participation phase, where prices are rising due to increased demand from the public.

Technical data suggests there may be further upward movement.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Strategy 1: Buying on dips ###Buy the Dip(

Given the strong bullish trend but rapid price increases, a short-term correction may occur.

This strategy recommends waiting for the price to retrace to key support levels, such as around $3,859 )October opening support( or the main support at $3,782.

Confirm entry signals with technical tools when RSI approaches 50 or MACD shows a reversal. Then, set stop-loss below deep support, e.g., around $3,750 ), and target profits at $4,084–$4,113.

( Strategy 2: Testing breakout retests )Breakout Retest###

Once gold breaks through the psychological resistance at $4,000, it often retests the previous resistance, which becomes new support. This is another good entry point.

Wait for the price to decline back to around $3,980–$4,000, confirming that this support can withstand selling pressure, with bullish reversal candles and increased volume. Then, set a stop-loss slightly below support, e.g., at $3,950 (, and aim for targets above $4,100.

) Strategy 3: Using Fibonacci retracement levels

When gold moves up from a low point (say around $3,500) to a high ###$4,059(, Fibonacci levels help identify key support zones.

Draw Fibonacci retracement from the start point to the high, and look for buy opportunities at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels. When the price approaches these levels and shows reversal signals, set stop-loss below the Fibonacci level, deeper if needed.

Overall Summary: Gold Still Has Medium-Term Potential

Based on fundamental analysis, technical data, and institutional outlooks, gold prices are expected to continue rising into 2026–2027.

Goldman Sachs and other major banks forecast prices reaching $4,900 per ounce, which in Thailand translates to gold prices potentially soaring to 75,000–80,000 THB per baht of gold by 2026.

However, investors should be aware of volatility risks. Prices may experience short-term corrections or consolidations. Timing and risk management are crucial.

For medium-term investors, a multi-step approach—waiting for minor dips, confirming entry points with technical tools, and setting stop-losses—is advisable to manage risk effectively.