Gold 2026.. Are we witnessing a new historic surge towards $5000?

Gold experienced an exciting journey throughout 2025, reaching an unprecedented peak of $4,300 per ounce in mid-October, before retreating to a level of $4,000 in November. This volatility raises pressing questions about what 2026 will bring, and whether the precious metal is preparing for a new surge or has entered a long correction phase.

In fact, gold price forecasts for the coming days depend not only on speculation but also on a solid foundation of economic, monetary, and geopolitical factors that shape global demand for the yellow metal as an investment hedge.

Factors Supporting Rising Gold Price Expectations

Investment demand breaks records

Data from the World Gold Council shows a clear picture of increasing demand. In Q2 2025 alone, total demand reached 1249 tons, a year-over-year increase of 3%, while the monetary value soared by an astonishing 45% to reach $132 billion.

Gold ETFs (ETFs) recorded exceptional inflows, with assets under management reaching $472 billion by the end of Q2, with total holdings of 3838 tons. This figure dangerously approaches the previous all-time peak of 3929 tons, indicating that new investors continue to buy gold at a rapid pace.

Geographically, North America dominated demand with 55.8% of global demand, followed by Europe and Asia. In the US alone, gold funds injected $21 billion during the first half of the year, offsetting declines in consumer demand.

Central banks boost reserves at record pace

Central banks are not absent from this movement. Global central banks added 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025, a rate exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 24%.

Statistics indicate a significant shift: 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, up from only 37% in 2024. This increase reflects a growing desire among emerging market countries to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar.

China continued to lead, adding more than 65 tons in Q1 alone, achieving 22 consecutive months of buying. Turkey increased its reserves to surpass 600 tons. India is also not lagging behind. These purchases are expected to remain the main driver of demand until the end of 2026.

Supply constraints deepen the gap

Mine production causes bottlenecks

While demand surged strongly, supply remained sluggish. Mine production in Q1 2025 reached 856 tons, a slight increase of less than 1% year-over-year. This marginal increase is insufficient to bridge the gap between explosive demand and limited supply.

Even worse, recycled gold saw a 1% decline, as owners of gold jewelry preferred to hold onto their assets rather than sell, expecting further price increases. This behavior exacerbates the supply shortage.

Rising operational costs have worsened the issue. The global average extraction cost rose to around $1470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a full decade. This means any expansion in production will be slow and yield narrow profit margins, supporting bullish gold price expectations.

Monetary policies: gold’s strongest ally

The Fed opens the door to easing

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. The accompanying statement indicated potential further cuts if the labor market weakens or economic growth slows.

FedWatch tool data forecasts a further 25 basis point cut at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for December 9-10, 2025. If this occurs, it will be the third cut of the year, likely weakening the dollar and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven.

BlackRock’s report suggests that interest rates could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. This lower level will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, increasing its appeal.

European and Japanese central banks lean towards easing

Easing policies are not exclusive to the Fed. The European Central Bank continues to cut rates, and the Bank of Japan maintains a strong easing stance. These coordinated policies weaken foreign currencies and enhance gold’s attractiveness globally.

Sovereign debt and inflation: ongoing concerns

The IMF warned that global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP. This unprecedented level raises increasing fears about fiscal sustainability and governments’ ability to service debt.

Investors are well aware of this threat. 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings in Q3 2025, seeking protection against potential inflation and the expected decline in paper currency’s purchasing power.

The World Bank forecasts a 35% rise in gold prices in 2025, indicating broad confidence in the metal’s long-term value as a store of wealth.

Geopolitical tensions fuel safe-haven demand

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with Middle East tensions, have prompted investors to increase their exposure to gold. Reuters reported that geopolitical uncertainty raised demand by 7% year-over-year in 2025.

When tensions around the Taiwan Strait intensified, spot gold prices jumped to $3400 in July 2025. A few months later, they exceeded $4300 in October. This historical behavior shows how any new crisis in 2026 could be enough to push prices to new record levels.

Dynamics of the dollar and real yields

Gold historically moves in an inverse relationship with the dollar and real bond yields. In 2025, the dollar index weakened by about 7.64% from its early-year peak. US 10-year bond yields declined from 4.6% to 4.07% by November.

This dual weakness in the dollar and yields has significantly supported institutional demand for gold. Bank of America analysts expect that continuing this trend could support gold price forecasts in 2026, especially with real yields stabilizing around 1.2%.

Middle East region: accelerating growth

Central banks in the region have not lagged behind the global trend. The Central Bank of Egypt added one ton in Q1, while the Central Bank of Qatar added 3 tons.

Based on global forecasts indicating the potential for gold to reach $5000 in 2026:

• In Egypt, the price could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce, a 158.46% increase
• In Saudi Arabia, the price might move toward 18,750 to 19,000 SAR (at a fixed exchange rate)
• In the UAE, it could approach 18,375 to 19,000 AED

Of course, these estimates are conditional on exchange rate stability and no major economic shocks.

Market outlook for the coming year

Major analysts’ forecasts vary, but one trend dominates:

HSBC expects gold to reach $5000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4600, compared to $3455 in 2025.

Bank of America raised its forecast to $5000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4400, warning of a possible short-term correction.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its outlook to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs.

J.P. Morgan predicts gold could reach around $5055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4800 and $5000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4200 and $4800.

Technical analysis: what does the chart say?

By the end of November 2025, gold closed at $4065.01 per ounce. The price broke below the upward channel on the daily timeframe but still holds the main bullish trendline connecting lows around $4050.

Strong support exists at $4000. A break below this level could target the $3800 zone (50% Fibonacci retracement).

On the resistance side, $4200 represents the first strong barrier, followed by $4400 and $4680.

The RSI indicator remains at 50, reflecting a neutral state between buying and selling. The MACD line stays above zero, confirming that the overall trend remains bullish.

Technical outlook: gold will likely trade within a range of $4000 to $4220 in the near term, maintaining a positive outlook as long as it stays above the main trendline.

Potential risks to bullish forecasts

A correction cannot be ruled out. HSBC warned of a possible loss of upward momentum in the second half of 2026, with corrections toward $4200 if investors take profits, but excluding a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that sustained prices above $4800 could constitute a “price credibility test,” especially with weak industrial demand.

However, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is hard to break downward, thanks to strategic shifts in how investors view it as a long-term asset.

Conclusion: Are we heading toward $5000?

Evidence suggests that gold price forecasts for the coming days show a strong bullish trend. Investment demand is rising, central banks are buying heavily, supply is limited, monetary policies are easing, and geopolitical tensions and sovereign debt provide ongoing support.

Reaching $5000 is not an unrealistic dream but a real possibility if current factors persist. However, caution is advised regarding short-term corrections and market volatility. Wise investors will maintain their long-term positions while carefully monitoring nearby support and resistance levels.