🚨BREAKING

CFTC CoT (Dec 16-23 data, released Dec 31):
• Ags: Corn MM long; SRW wheat MM short
• Energy: P/M short hedging; MM long
• NatGas: Massive OI; Swap Dealers heavy short; MM long
• Electricity: Commercials dominate
• Metals & other: Gold MM long; Copper OR short

Compared with the previous report, grain positioning has shifted from uniformly defensive to selectively constructive. The key change is in corn, where Managed Money moved from net short back to net long, indicating a modest return of speculative risk-taking in that contract. By contrast, SRW wheat remains net short, confirming that positioning across grains is still contract-specific rather than broad-based. Commercial short hedging across the complex remains heavy and largely unchanged, meaning the adjustment continues to come primarily from speculators rather than producers.

In petroleum, the market structure shows continuity rather than rotation. Producer/Merchant short hedging remains the anchor, while Managed Money stays net long without significant expansion, similar to the prior report. This continues to signal position maintenance rather than fresh buildup, reflecting steady demand assumptions rather than a shift in speculative conviction.

Natural gas remains structurally consistent with the last release. Open interest is still extremely elevated, Swap Dealers hold large net short exposure, and Managed Money remains net long. The pattern reinforces that the market continues to be dominated by dealer and physical hedging, with speculative participation tied to volatility and seasonality, not directional control — essentially unchanged from the earlier report.

Electricity positioning continues to show commercial dominance with ongoing speculative presence. As in the prior update, Managed Money participation remains visible in key hubs, confirming that funds have not withdrawn from power markets, even as utilities and producers still drive the majority of overall positioning.

In metals, the broader structure is stable rather than shifting. Gold maintains Managed Money net long positioning, reinforcing its role as a defensive macro asset without signs of aggressive accumulation. Copper remains characterized by Other Reportables net short, echoing the prior report and signaling that confidence in near-term industrial demand has not strengthened.

Overall, the main development is the corn flip back to MM long, while wider market structures show continuation rather than rotation. Speculative activity remains selective, commercial hedging still dominates, and the overarching signal is persistence, not transition.