#比特币市场动态 After reviewing Tom Lee's and IOSG's perspectives, let's clarify the core logic behind this wave of market signals.

The framework of coexistence between short-term defense and long-term optimism is indeed valid—the key lies in the misalignment of time horizons. Tom Lee emphasizes macro cycle liquidity judgments, while Fundstrat focuses on recent capital risk management; their differing responsibilities lead to variations in time frames, which is a normal division of labor among institutions and not a contradiction.

What is more noteworthy is IOSG's on-chain data: by 2025, retail investors will have exited 66%, while institutional holdings will account for 24%, indicating that market dominance has already shifted. Although BTC's annual decline is 5.4%, it reached a new high of 126K during the period, and more importantly, ETF inflows have accumulated to $25 billion—this is the real capital flow indicator.

From the supply side, 2025 saw the largest turnover in history, and the bottoming out of supply is essentially confirmed. Combined with policy expectations (a policy honeymoon period in the first half of 2026) and infrastructure improvements, it is highly probable that institutions will continue building positions within the short-term range of 87,000 to 95,000. The mid-term target points to 120,000–150,000, with this range established based on dual policy drivers and a solid ETF foundation.

Risks that need attention include: changes in Federal Reserve policies, continued selling pressure from long-term holders, and uncertainties in the mid-term elections. But on the flip side, these risks also present opportunities for deployment. When market structures undergo fundamental changes, relying on old valuation logic will only lead to missed opportunities.