#比特币价格预测 Looking at this wave of market predictions, it's really quite interesting. On Polymarket, there's a 100,000 USD probability of dropping to 10%, but Tom Lee still says Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high before the end of January 2026—this isn't a contradiction, but rather reflects rational thinking across different time horizons.

In the short term, the market indeed still carries risks. Santiment's analysis hits the key point—social media panic sentiment isn't deep enough yet, which often means the bottom hasn't truly been established. A drop to $75,000 or even lower is possible, so caution is necessary at this stage.

But what does this imply? The crypto market is maturing. Institutional investors no longer see the market in black-and-white terms but operate with strategies that combine short-term risk management and long-term optimism. Defense and bullishness can coexist, which is a hallmark of mature investors.

I remain very confident in the long term. Since Bitcoin's inception, every major dip has been the incubation period for the next bull run. The current volatility is just an inevitable part of the decentralized future. Instead of obsessing over short-term prices, it's better to think about why institutions continue to increase their holdings and why more people are recognizing the value of on-chain assets—this is the real story worth paying attention to.

Manage risks well, stick to long-term beliefs, and wait for the next wave.