BTC Technical Outlook: Bitcoin Attempts Base Formation After Sharp Breakdown

Bitcoin remains in a broader corrective structure after a strong rejection from the $125,000–$126,000 macro supply zone, where price topped near the 1.0 Fibonacci level. That rejection marked a clear distribution phase, ending the prior bullish leg and triggering a sharp downside expansion.

The selloff intensified once BTC lost the $108,700–$103,400 region (0.618–0.5 Fib), confirming a structural breakdown and shifting short-to-medium-term control to sellers.

EMA Structure (Bearish-to-Neutral Alignment)

20 EMA – $89,494

50 EMA – $91,673

100 EMA – $96,725

200 EMA – $100,273

BTC is trading below the 100 & 200 EMA, with the 20/50 EMA attempting to curl upward. This suggests early stabilization, but price remains below key trend-defining averages, keeping the broader bias cautiously bearish.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $126,123

0.786 Fib: $116,400

0.618 Fib: $108,700

0.5 Fib: $103,405

0.382 Fib: $96,042

0.236 Fib: $91,410

Fib 0: $80,687

BTC is currently consolidating between $88,000–$92,000, just above a short-term demand zone formed after the sharp November–December selloff. This region has acted as a temporary base, with higher lows forming on the lower timeframe.

A clean reclaim of $91,400 (0.236 Fib) would open the door for a recovery toward the $96,000–$100,000 resistance cluster, where EMA confluence is present.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 66

RSI has rebounded into the bullish momentum zone, signaling strong short-term recovery strength. However, this momentum is not yet confirmed by bullish structure, suggesting the move remains corrective unless followed by structural reclaim.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$91,400 (0.236 Fib)

$96,000–$97,000 (0.382 Fib / 100 EMA)

$100,000–$103,400 (200 EMA / 0.5 Fib)

$108,700 (0.618 Fib)

Support

$88,000–$90,000 (short-term demand)

$85,000 (local swing support)

$80,700 (Fib 0 / major downside support)

📌 Summary

BTC is attempting to form a base after a sharp corrective move from all-time highs. While momentum has improved and short-term structure is stabilizing, the broader trend remains corrective unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $96,000–$100,000 resistance zone with strength.

Failure to hold above $88,000 would risk continuation toward the $85,000–$80,700 support region, while sustained acceptance above $100K would significantly improve the bullish outlook.

$BTC
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