Bull Market Not Over Yet, But Investor Sentiment Is Being Tested

Recently, many investors have fallen into a state of extreme confusion. The most repeated question is not “which coin should I buy,” but rather: “Has the bull market ended?” This emotion is completely understandable. In the crypto market, just a few strong red candles are enough to shake confidence. Today, investors are excited because prices are rising; tomorrow, they are worried because accounts are quickly vaporizing. But if you have experienced multiple cycles, you will understand one thing: the bull market has never followed a straight line. It is always built through intense fluctuations aimed at eliminating impatient participants. Major Volatility, But Silent Capital Flows Are the True Deciders On the surface, the market appears extremely chaotic. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its peak, with some days seeing deep declines, leading to hundreds of thousands of accounts being liquidated due to high leverage. Fear is spreading across investment communities. However, the most important factor is beyond the sight of most retail investors: large capital flows are not leaving but are patiently waiting. Market history shows that all major accumulation phases occur amid doubt. When most believe the market is “about to crash,” it is often the time when long-term positions are quietly being built. Macroeconomic Perspective: Liquidity Is Not Disappearing, Just Adjusting From a macro perspective, expectations regarding monetary policy are indeed fluctuating. The Federal Reserve has not yet announced a clear easing roadmap, putting short-term pressure on risky assets. However, looking further ahead, the global liquidity trend has not reversed. The growth rate of the money supply (M2) in major economies still shows a positive correlation with Bitcoin prices in the medium and long term. Additionally, signals of more friendly policies toward digital assets—especially discussions about integrating crypto into the formal financial system—are laying the groundwork for the next phase, even if short-term prices do not reflect this clearly. Market Structure Has Changed: Calm Institutions, Panic Individuals One of the most significant changes in the current cycle is the increasing role of institutional capital. When retail investors panic and sell off out of fear, large funds tend to gradually deploy capital through legitimate channels like spot Bitcoin ETFs. They do not buy out of emotion but based on data, cycles, and long-term strategies. Conversely, most recent “account blow-ups” stem from leverage abuse and emotional trading. Panic selling during declines and FOMO buying during rebounds create a cycle that keeps many trapped in losses. In a Bull Market, the Most Dangerous Thing Is Not Corrections The greatest danger in a bull market is not falling prices but losing direction. A bull market does not reward reckless risk-takers but those who know how to manage risk. Not everyone with “big guts” wins; it’s those who maintain positions, manage capital, and wait for the right moment. The current phase can be seen as a process of: Over-leverage cleansing Cooling unrealistic expectations Rebalancing market psychology This is necessary for the market to go further. Key Points to Watch in 2026 Looking ahead, there are several key factors to pay close attention to: Interest rate policies and global capital flows, especially the actions of the Fed Development of digital assets linked to traditional financial systems Clearer legal frameworks in major financial centers Inflow/outflow of capital from Bitcoin ETFs and key digital assets If institutional capital continues to sustain or return to a net buying state, it will provide a solid foundation for a more sustainable recovery cycle. Conclusion: Opportunities Are Still There, The Important Thing Is Whether You Have Enough Patience The market always operates according to a familiar law: born in despair—grows amid doubt—ends in euphoria. Looking at the current state, it’s clear that the market is still in the doubt phase, not the end. The lights are still on. The road is still ahead. The issue is not whether the market will give opportunities but whether you have the resilience to see it through to the end. Practical advice for investors: Reduce leverage, control your capital allocation, limit emotional trading, and prioritize learning—these are the ways to survive and grow long-term in crypto.