From on-chain data, this price point doesn't seem like organic growth. The buy order book is ridiculously shallow, and the price is more "floating" than actually rising. Without real trading volume support, just a few million dollars in resting orders can easily move the market cap by hundreds of billions.
If it really goes up, you'll see a straight-upward candlestick—10% daily gains for a month straight. Everyone will go crazy, and the $500,000 target will seem within reach.
But this might be the most dangerous moment.
When the price flickers at the $285,000 high, large whales suddenly withdraw their resting orders. The market loses support, and a vacuum circuit breaker kicks in.
The price won't gently retrace. It will plummet like a broken elevator—dropping instantly from $285,000 to $150,000, with no trading opportunities in between. Your stop-loss orders will be rendered useless.
Next comes chain liquidations. Leveraged traders are forced out en masse, further destroying the bottom support. Panic spreads, and trader confidence collapses.
Finally, the price may become deadlocked around $45,000.
Looking back, the candlestick in 2026 is just a huge upper shadow—an altitude of $200,000, but it becomes a tombstone. Those who chase the high and dream of an eternal bull market at high levels are ultimately just fuel for market liquidity.
There are only two types of winners in this market: those who decisively exit at $285,000, and those waiting to bottom out at $45,000. As for everyone else? They can only serve as liquidity providers.
On-chain data never lies. Managing risk well is far more important than blind optimism.
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MetaverseMortgage
· 01-07 10:37
Buyers are so shallow and still want to push the market up? Laughing to death, it's already 2024 and some people still believe this trick.
This time it's definitely the old trick of the whales harvesting the retail investors.
28.5K is the peak, I am just waiting here to buy the dip at 4.5K.
Really heartbreaking, it's always the same routine.
Honestly, I admire the author's courage for analyzing on-chain data so thoroughly.
The elevator plummeting analogy is perfect; my stop-loss orders have already been triggered twice.
At the 45,000 level, I am already ready with my bullets.
View OriginalReply0
DaoTherapy
· 01-05 21:13
Buyers are so shallow, can it really push this high? It feels like the market makers are playing with fire.
280,000 might just be a high point to cut leeks; only when the chain reaction of liquidations happens will it be truly hell.
Honestly, I’m just waiting to buy in at 45,000; everything else is gambling.
If this wave really crashes down, stop-losses won't save you.
Always remember: not all rises are genuine, on-chain is where the true test lies.
View OriginalReply0
CrossChainMessenger
· 01-05 08:17
Buy order book shallow to this extent and still want to push, that's indeed a bit outrageous.
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Wait, if this logic can be applied in every cycle, why does it have to be fulfilled this time?
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That straight-line surge for a month, I think I've seen it somewhere... Wasn't it the same in the last cycle?
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Dead set around $45,000? That's a nice thought, but who can guarantee it?
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It sounds very convincing, but on-chain data also depends on how you interpret it.
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The saying that there are only two types of winners is too absolute; the market isn't that binary.
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If it really follows this pattern, why don't big institutions lay their traps in advance?
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Every time, a perfect collapse story can be spun, but the market always loves to go against the script.
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Market makers pushing prices up, this has been seen through long ago.
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The stop-loss orders being useless, that really hit the mark.
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On-chain data doesn't lie, but everyone interprets it differently.
View OriginalReply0
AirdropJunkie
· 01-04 15:53
Oh dear, this narrative is a bit frightening, but it's not without reason.
Honestly, we've seen too many stories of skyrocketing followed by free fall.
Trying to push the price up with shallow buy orders? Haha, just the old trick of market makers.
Instead of chasing the high, it's better to patiently wait for that $45k level.
View OriginalReply0
MevSandwich
· 01-04 15:43
28.5K sounds great, but when the time comes, I’m afraid I’ll have to sell...
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A typical pump-and-dump script, played out every time
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Exactly right, a shallow market with spoof orders can pump the price, retail investors have no chance to breathe
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The part about the elevator drop was written perfectly; the phrase "stop-loss is useless" hits home
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I just want to know how many people will really sell at 285K
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Rather than acting as liquidity fuel, it’s better to plan an exit in advance—simple and straightforward
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On-chain data doesn’t lie, but greedy people’s eyes go blind
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This article is saying: greed is the original sin
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Buying at 45K sounds easy, but in reality, it was even more terrifying than now
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Another story of "I see through the pump-and-dump," but at critical moments, how many can resist chasing the rally?
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This time, the danger is indeed different; a consistent 10% daily increase just doesn’t feel right
View OriginalReply0
LiquidityWitch
· 01-04 15:35
You're telling scary stories again, but this time the details are ridiculously elaborate, I have to recheck the candlestick chart.
Why does it feel like this guy is hinting at something? 285,000 seems like a trap?
Wait, this logic is a bit extreme... With such shallow buying pressure, how can it be pushed so high? Is this saying the market makers are so skilled or are retail investors so foolish?
I'm really worried. This idea of "two types of winners," isn't the third type just us?
So what should I do now? Should I really wait for 45,000, or just give up and stop playing?
This article is basically saying: the rise is fake, and when it falls, you can't run away. We're all just sheep waiting to be slaughtered.
View OriginalReply0
probably_nothing_anon
· 01-04 15:26
This article sounds a bit scary, but the shallow buying pressure is indeed inconsistent.
Honestly, the figure of 285,000 looks like a mirror trap to me.
Wait, why are those shouting about 500,000 now silent?
Dropping straight to 45k? I feel like this is just the standard script describing each bull market top.
A single order withdrawal causing the market to collapse—how fragile does that make it?
Frankly, I’d rather trust the data than believe how genuine this rally is.
Those leveraged traders are probably going to be severely lessons this time.
I only agree with the saying that there are two types of winners; the rest are just destined to be harvested.
These days, market makers pulling up the price really doesn’t take much skill—millions can move a market cap of hundreds of billions.
It feels like the number 28.5k itself is flickering and unstable, not solid.
Can Bitcoin in 2026 really reach $285,000?
From on-chain data, this price point doesn't seem like organic growth. The buy order book is ridiculously shallow, and the price is more "floating" than actually rising. Without real trading volume support, just a few million dollars in resting orders can easily move the market cap by hundreds of billions.
If it really goes up, you'll see a straight-upward candlestick—10% daily gains for a month straight. Everyone will go crazy, and the $500,000 target will seem within reach.
But this might be the most dangerous moment.
When the price flickers at the $285,000 high, large whales suddenly withdraw their resting orders. The market loses support, and a vacuum circuit breaker kicks in.
The price won't gently retrace. It will plummet like a broken elevator—dropping instantly from $285,000 to $150,000, with no trading opportunities in between. Your stop-loss orders will be rendered useless.
Next comes chain liquidations. Leveraged traders are forced out en masse, further destroying the bottom support. Panic spreads, and trader confidence collapses.
Finally, the price may become deadlocked around $45,000.
Looking back, the candlestick in 2026 is just a huge upper shadow—an altitude of $200,000, but it becomes a tombstone. Those who chase the high and dream of an eternal bull market at high levels are ultimately just fuel for market liquidity.
There are only two types of winners in this market: those who decisively exit at $285,000, and those waiting to bottom out at $45,000. As for everyone else? They can only serve as liquidity providers.
On-chain data never lies. Managing risk well is far more important than blind optimism.