2026-01-02 05:00:27

#数字资产动态追踪 Bitcoin has broken the familiar 4-year cycle pattern that has persisted for 14 years. The old superstition that a big rally always follows the halving in the following year is no longer valid. Where did the problem lie? The answer is straightforward—the market engine has changed.

What did it rely on in the past? Supply tightening and retail investor sentiment. But now? Liquidity waves, interest rate fluctuations, the rhythm of institutional capital inflows and outflows, and even macroeconomic cycles—these factors have long overshadowed the mathematical rules on the chain. $BTC $ETH $SOL have evolved from "scarce assets" to "macro assets." Is the halving still important? Of course, but its weight is decreasing. Bitcoin is growing, and the market is also growing—this is a sign of maturity.

BTC1,71%

ETH2,32%

SOL2,95%

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AirdropATM

· 9m ago

Basically, the crypto world has grown up, and the old tricks no longer work in this era.

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TRK41

· 7h ago

Happy New Year! 🤑

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Anon32942

· 8h ago

Honestly, halving is no longer a panacea. Now it all depends on what the Federal Reserve is doing, really.

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HackerWhoCares

· 8h ago

I've seen it all along, the four-year cycle should have been thrown into the trash long ago. Now Bitcoin is just a commodity, following the Federal Reserve's lead. Institutional entry has changed the game rules. The halving curse is dead. Wake up, those still waiting for a surge. That's spot on. Who still truly believes in on-chain math? When interest rates move, everything moves. That's the real market. Wait, so how are retail investors supposed to play now? Technical analysis has become completely invalid. The cost of growth is losing that wildness, which is a bit of a pity.

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WalletsWatcher

· 8h ago

In plain terms, the four-year cycle theory is long outdated. Now it all depends on whether the Federal Reserve will "eat or not." The halving curse has been broken. After institutional involvement, Bitcoin has become a macro trading asset, and that’s the real truth. Liquidity is king; all on-chain mathematical rules have to take a backseat. Bitcoin has become financialized, which has its pros and cons. Retail investors still have to dance to the macroeconomic tune. This time really is different. The maturity seems to have increased, but it’s also harder to predict.

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LiquidityOracle

· 8h ago

Wow, has the halving curse failed? Then my previous bets are... never mind, I don't want to think about it anymore. Institutional giants have long been treating Bitcoin like US stocks for trading, so what are we waiting for—on-chain mathematical patterns? Basically, the macro asset properties are becoming more dominant, and retail investors' voices can't compete with the Federal Reserve's money-printing machine. Whenever interest rates fluctuate, everything related to halving has to take a back seat. That's just the harsh reality.

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defi_detective

· 8h ago

The curse is broken, now we have to rely on the Federal Reserve to feed us. The halving logic has long been outdated, now it's up to the institutions to play their hand.

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SolidityStruggler

· 8h ago

It sounds nice, but actually retail investors can't make money anymore. After the institutions came, the four-year cycle is no longer useful to us. Wait, then what are we still buying... Oh no, the halving weight decreases? So is the halving hype still worth looking forward to?

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