#ETF与衍生品 Tracking recent on-chain movements and fund flows of Lighter, this wave of TGE is indeed worth paying attention to.

From a data perspective, several key signals point to an initiation within the year: on Polymarket, there are suspected large purchases of "YES" shares by team addresses; the cleanup of wallet addresses has begun; Coinbase has officially announced the token listing roadmap. These are not baseless rumors.

But the real difference lies in the business model itself. Lighter's zero-fee structure is truly attractive to small retail investors—at fund sizes between 1,000 and 100,000 USD, the total costs are significantly lower than Hyperliquid. The underlying logic is "using money to buy time"; institutions pay for low-latency channels, while retail investors enjoy 300ms latency with still manageable costs. This asymmetric design creates a new revenue stream.

What’s more worth noting is the differentiation in technical architecture. As an Ethereum L2, Lighter achieves direct mapping of mainnet assets to L2 collateral through ZK trustless bridging solutions, allowing users to earn staking rewards from stETH while using it as collateral for trading. This offers advantages in security and capital efficiency. In contrast, Hyperliquid’s cross-chain bridge relies on multi-signature trust, which is a long-term risk.

On the liquidity layer, Lighter’s unified architecture avoids the fragmentation issues seen in the HIP-3 model. Coupled with backing from traditional financial VC firms, compliance integration will be smoother. Privacy protection also adds appeal for large capital.

Therefore, the core issue is not whether TGE can happen, but whether organic growth post-TGE can be sustained. Hyperliquid has broken the "mine, pump, sell" curse, but Lighter faces stronger VC unlocking pressure. Post-airdrop, slippage worsens → trading volume declines → a negative cycle—this is a probabilistic event.

From the perspective of derivatives ecosystem patterns, the challenge of Perp DEX to CEX has just begun. These two platforms represent different technological routes; both have long-term survival space. The key is who can establish a sustainable liquidity moat.