2025-12-31 09:23:55

2025 is about to come to an end, and this year's market has been quite volatile. As liquidity continues to shrink, the days of 2026 probably won't be much better. The market is like nurturing a snake, and those involved are becoming increasingly cautious.

The current situation is quite awkward—although the bottom is gradually rising, the expected rebound after Christmas has not arrived as promised. The current scenario is basically that whenever institutions tighten their grip, the market rolls its eyes, and when they loosen a bit, someone starts to boast—typical of a passive rebound pattern.

From a technical perspective, the short-term oscillation range is roughly between the support at 873-865 and the resistance at 890-904. There's a detail worth noting: if the monthly chart remains at this level by 8 a.m. tomorrow, the annual closing will look quite ugly.

Don't expect too much from rate cuts in Q1 and Q2. Historical experience shows that rate cuts in these two quarters are often accompanied by a backdrop of "economic collapse." Financial and real economies can diverge in the short term, but once the real economy is completely dead, the financial system can't survive either. Next year will definitely see some upward movement, but I expect the major rise to occur in Q3 and Q4, when rate cuts combined with the mid-term elections could trigger the final dance.

This round of market has basically been invalidated by many factors. The upcoming strategy is intraday + swing trading; unless a black swan event occurs, avoid heavy positions and try to preserve cash reserves, waiting for the real opportunity to emerge.

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ProposalManiac

· 4h ago

Institutions get full and then let go, retail investors are still dreaming of a rebound. This governance logic has been seen before. History tells us that aggressive Q1 and Q2 are inevitably accompanied by systemic risks. Those who see this clearly now have already won half the battle. --- Don't just talk about interest rate cuts; the real catalyst will come from the mid-term elections. This time gap is the most ingenious part of mechanism design. Getting out early is the best strategy. --- Breaking the 873-865 support and the annual line will look bad, but it also precisely shows that market governance efficiency is very poor—passive rebound mode simply cannot form consensus. I choose to wait and see. --- The phrase "Cash is king" finally isn't just empty talk under extreme liquidity contraction. Reducing positions from heavy to light is essentially reconfiguring incentive compatibility. --- I've seen a lot of that bragging before; as soon as institutions loosen up, someone jumps out to tell stories. It’s always been like this in history, always cutting leeks. The same old advice: if there are no black swans, just lie flat.

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MetaverseLandlady

· 4h ago

Institutions' moves are really brilliant; the market just treats it as a puppet show. The analogy of nurturing a snake is so fitting. --- I'm also stunned that the Christmas rebound didn't come; this is a passive situation. --- Q1Q2 interest rate cuts? Don't dream about it; history will repeat itself. --- Next year's dance is in Q3Q4; just lie down and be obedient now. --- Holding cash isn't weakness; it's waiting for the real opportunity. --- This market is really useless. Without a black swan, I won't move. --- The position at 873-865 will reveal the truth tomorrow morning; the monthly close looks ugly. --- Economic collapse paired with rate cuts; it's no wonder the financial sector won't die. --- This passive rebound is like this; if institutions squeeze a little, we have to roll our eyes. --- 2026 will be even more painful; liquidity exhaustion is just this bad.

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OPsychology

· 4h ago

Cultivation Gu game, when institutions choke us, we just roll our eyes, truly incredible. Wait for Q3 and Q4, right now it's just a war of attrition, cash is king. Raising the bottom doesn't do anything, if the rebound doesn't come, it just doesn't come; no matter how much you hype, it's useless. Is the economic collapse behind the interest rate cuts in two quarters next year? Then what are we hoping for? Q3 and Q4 are the real acts. Hold the 873-865 range tightly, or just break apart. I just don't understand this passive rebound strategy; as soon as institutions breathe a sigh of relief, they start acting, it's hilarious. The real economy is dead, and the financial system can't survive either; there's no fault in that. If the black swan hasn't appeared, stick to cash and wait for real opportunities, don't mess around. Intraday swing trading, heavy positions are a suicide mission. Even the closing of this year's line depends on the operations at 8 o'clock tomorrow; it's all mysticism.

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GasSavingMaster

· 4h ago

This tightening and loosening operation by institutions is basically just harvesting retail investors. For us retail investors, lying flat and waiting for Q3/Q4 is the right move.

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MevWhisperer

· 4h ago

The Gu Cultivation Bureau analogy is brilliant; when institutions choke the market, it just rolls its eyes haha. The passive rebound is like this. Cash is king. We'll see when the black swan arrives. Q3 and Q4 are the real showtimes. The bottom is raised but the rebound hasn't come, and this awkwardness is indeed hard to bear. Don't expect Q1 and Q2; history has played out this way. The实体 is completely dead, and finance can't escape. The monthly line's direction at 8 o'clock tomorrow is really crucial. The annual line closing might be truly ugly. When institutions breathe a sigh of relief, they start bragging—typical passive mode of the韭菜. Save your firepower for opportunities. Without a black swan, stay steady; it's better than reckless operations.

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