Solana Death Cross Hidden, Market Game Behind the Countertrend Growth in Trading Volume

Recently, a death cross formed on Solana’s hourly chart between the 9-day and 26-day moving averages, a technical indicator often regarded as a short-term bearish signal. In stark contrast, its 24-hour trading volume increased by 10.6%, reaching approximately $3.19 billion.

As of December 31, Gate Market Data shows that SOL’s price, after slight fluctuations, is currently trading around the $126 range. This price level has retreated from its intraday high of $128.39.

Technical Dilemma: Death Cross and Market Reaction

A notable technical signal has appeared on Solana’s hourly chart—the 9-day moving average crossing below the 26-day moving average, forming the so-called “death cross.” This pattern is generally seen as a sign of short-term trend weakening. Typically, the appearance of a death cross triggers cautious sentiment among market participants. Technical analysts suggest that this signal may indicate further downward movement in price.

Looking at historical data, Solana’s performance over the past 30 days has been relatively positive, with a total increase of 0.78%. However, the formation of the death cross could impact this upward trend.

Volume Surge: The True Meaning of Capital Flow

Contrasting sharply with the price trend is the change in Solana’s trading volume. Data shows that over the past 24 hours, Solana’s trading volume has increased by 10.6%, reaching about $3.19 billion. This apparent positive significance of the volume increase warrants cautious interpretation. Market analysis suggests that the rise in trading volume may reflect increased selling activity rather than accumulation through buying.

Some observers point out that many traders may have set automatic stop-loss orders near $125. Once the price falls below this key level, it triggers a chain of sell-offs. This mechanism could explain why trading volume increased while the price was declining.

Ecosystem Fundamentals: The Power of Long-Term Support

Contrasting with the short-term technical picture is the strong performance of the Solana ecosystem. According to the official 2025 Year-End Review, the decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume on Solana has exceeded $17 trillion, ranking second globally.

Even more noteworthy is Solana’s progress in institutional adoption. In 2025, multiple Solana-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) were launched, including Bitwise’s spot Solana ETP (BSOL), which recorded net inflows for 33 consecutive days after launch, with a total scale exceeding $647 million. Regarding revenue, Solana is expected to generate approximately $1.4 billion in 2025, a figure that could even surpass Ethereum’s $522 million. These robust fundamental data provide a support logic different from pure technical analysis.

Cross-Chain Collaboration: A New Narrative for Ecosystem Expansion

Recently, interactions between Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson and Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko have attracted market attention. The two hinted at the possibility of establishing cross-chain bridges between the two networks. The significance of this potential collaboration should not be underestimated. If realized, it would enable Cardano’s ADA tokens to be used for trading and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications on the Solana network.

From a broader interoperability trend, projects like Ika have announced that through technical upgrades, they can operate native assets across multiple blockchains such as Solana and Cardano without the need for bridges. This technological advancement could provide infrastructure support for cross-chain cooperation.

Market Structure: The Contradiction and Unity of Technical and Fundamental Aspects

Currently, Solana’s market presents a contradictory yet unified state: short-term technical indicators issue warning signals, while the medium- to long-term ecosystem fundamentals show resilience. This divergence reflects the differing concerns of investors across various time horizons.

From a technical analysis perspective, if Solana cannot hold the support zone at $121-$123, it may further test critical levels at $107 and even $95. This downward path aligns with the signals transmitted by the death cross.

However, from a fundamental perspective, Solana’s ecosystem activity, institutional adoption progress, and revenue performance all indicate strong long-term potential. Especially, its annual revenue might surpass Ethereum’s $522 million, providing valuation support different from technical traders.

Price Path: Balancing Short-Term Pressure and Long-Term Potential

Based on Gate platform data as of December 31, Solana’s current price fluctuates around $125. In the short term, technical indicators point to further downside pressure, with key support at the $121-$123 zone. If this support is broken, historical patterns and technical analysis suggest the price could further test levels at $107 and $95. This path is consistent with the signals from the death cross.

In the long run, multiple institutional analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Solana’s future. Some forecasts suggest that by 2030, Solana could reach a price range of approximately $1,004 (conservative estimate) to $1,258 (optimistic estimate). These projections are based on expectations of blockchain adoption, revenue growth, and market share expansion.

The fundamental and market performance of Solana show a dramatic divergence: on one hand, the ecosystem’s activity with over $17 trillion in annual DEX trading volume; on the other, the increasingly bearish technical formations on price charts. Even if the price faces further downside risk to $107 or even $95 in the short term, Solana’s network could still generate about $1.4 billion in revenue in 2025. This figure is nearly three times Ethereum’s expected revenue, reflecting the actual value creation capacity of the Solana ecosystem. Observing from Gate platform data, Solana’s price fluctuations are not only influenced by technical indicators but also closely related to capital flows in the entire crypto market. When Bitcoin’s market cap share approaches 60%, capital rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin becomes a key factor affecting the short-term performance of assets like Solana.