The US political arena is once again embroiled in a new tug-of-war. A subsidy policy that affects the healthcare costs of millions of Americans officially expired today, directly triggering conflicts between the two parties.

Here's what happened: the Democrats wanted to include the extension of the subsidy in the overall budget bill, but the Republicans insisted on a separate vote on this issue. The vote ultimately failed, and the subsidies were instantly halted. In October, a similar issue led to a 43-day government shutdown. The current temporary funding will last until February, with the deadline set for January 30.

Both sides are now fully engaged in blame-shifting: Democrats are ready to accuse Republicans of "doubling the healthcare costs for ordinary people," while Republicans might also bring border security issues into the mix as leverage. Data analysis shows that the probability of extending the subsidies before the end of January is only 25%, while the chance of another government shutdown has risen to 27%.

However, some believe that considering the political costs of midterm elections, the Trump administration might ultimately compromise and sign a short-term extension to avoid a full shutdown.

Why is this matter worth paying attention to? A government shutdown not only impacts the healthcare market but also has a more direct blow to overall economic confidence. Once confidence is shaken, risk assets typically face selling pressure, and volatility in the crypto market will undoubtedly be amplified. Investors should closely monitor developments around the end of January, as policy uncertainty often acts as an amplifier for market movements.