Many people have experienced this situation: waking up one morning to find that Bitcoin has already dropped 10%, and they were completely unprepared. In fact, this is not a personal problem — even Wall Street institutions often react with delays to Federal Reserve policy changes. Today, I will share three practical indicators to help you detect the shift in policy direction early, before it truly materializes.

**The Underlying Logic of Liquidity and Risk Assets**

To understand why Bitcoin is so sensitive, the key is to understand the role of the Federal Reserve. Central bank monetary policy is like the main valve of the financial market — when it opens (cutting rates, injecting liquidity), market funds are abundant, and risk assets like Bitcoin naturally rise; when it closes (raising rates, tightening liquidity), funding becomes tight, and risk assets are the first to come under pressure.

The most typical example is October 2025. At that time, Bitcoin briefly surged to a record high of $126,000, but as the Federal Reserve signaled tightening, market expectations for liquidity suddenly shifted. Over the following month, Bitcoin plummeted nearly 30%, wiping out almost all of this year's gains. This rollercoaster market may seem sudden, but behind it are policy expectations at work.

**Why Is It Always a Step Behind?**

The problem is that when the Federal Reserve officially announces a policy adjustment, the market has already digested it. The real profit opportunities come from acting early, before these signals are widely recognized. Therefore, what we need is to learn how to read the early warning signals hidden behind the data.

**Three Practical Indicators for Early Prediction**

Based on years of market observation, these three indicators best reflect the clues of the Federal Reserve's policy shift — they are like canaries in a coal mine, alerting us before danger arrives. How to use them specifically will be explored in depth later.