The recent minutes from the central bank meeting reveal a harsh reality: disagreements among decision-makers are growing, and they face a dilemma with no perfect answer.

The problem is straightforward: either preserve employment or maintain prices; you can't have both.

To stabilize employment, you need to cut interest rates, but the consequence of rate cuts is the potential resurgence of inflation. To curb inflation, you must keep interest rates high or even adopt more aggressive policies, at the cost of rising unemployment. This isn't a difficult economic problem; fundamentally, it's a political choice.

Looking at history, the 1980s approach is very illustrative. To thoroughly combat inflation, policymakers pushed interest rates to an astonishing 24%. It's hard to imagine now, but it was this move that clearly exposed the true priority of central banks—they care more about achieving inflation targets than employment data.

This understanding is crucial. As long as there is no overwhelming reason to cut rates, the current conventional option is to maintain or even tighten policy. Without a situation that forces a rate cut, a major policy reversal is unlikely.

What does this mean for risk assets like BTC and ETH? In the short term, it's definitely bearish. No rate cuts mean liquidity will continue to be suppressed, making risk assets more prone to volatility and corrections. Market sentiment will fluctuate repeatedly, and this phase won't be very comfortable.

But from a different perspective, the medium to long term might not be a bad thing. The longer high interest rates are maintained, the greater the pressure built up in the financial system. When finally released, it’s often not a gentle adjustment but a rapid shift. For the cryptocurrency market, this "sudden release of accumulated pressure" often marks the beginning of a major rally. Historically, the biggest gains tend to occur after the most difficult periods.

Therefore, the mindset that needs to change now is not to bet on whether the central bank will cut rates immediately in the short term, but to understand the underlying logic—under the current framework, inflation control remains the highest priority.

This determines the key strategies at present: patience, pace management, and position control. Don’t expect the market to be comfortable for everyone. The real opportunities often emerge when most people are feeling the most strained.