2025-12-31 08:24:14

On the last day of 2025, let's talk about the technical trend of BTC.

Looking back on this year's analysis, the biggest change lies in the re-recognition of the bottom of 80600. Early I tended to see it as the bottom of wave W, and the rally after 80600 was in a dilemma: bears saw it as a four-wave pullback, and bulls understood it as an X-a start. This kind of "up and down" two-sided nature is indeed easy to confuse.

The key cognitive upgrade comes from such an observation: the 80600-94500 section is dismantled, but it is actually a small five waves. However, there is an iron law in wave theory - "the reaction wave that goes against the trend of the first wave must unfold in a three-wave manner". In other words, the big four wave cannot go through the five-wave structure at all. This contradiction made me use triangular adjustment waves (whether it is zigzag, plateau or triangular contraction) to move stubbornly, and I always felt that something was missing.

Today's disassembly is more objective: 80600-94500 is defined as X-a wave, which unfolds as a small five waves, which is in line with the characteristics of driving waves. The adjustment from 94500 to the present is X-b wave, which is a contraction triangle, corresponding to the characteristics of the correction wave. There is a detail that confirms this judgment - since the 94500 adjustment, today's daily line closed above the upper band of the crocodile line for the first time, and there have been signs of bottom rise and stabilization in the short term.

Following this logic, the next rebound stage should be X-c wave, which is expected to unfold in a small five-wave pattern.

BTC-0,71%

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MechanicalMartel

· 12h ago

Wave theory is played so intricately... The wave at 80600 really confused people. Now, the breakdown into X-a, X-b, X-c feels much smoother. I need to pay attention to the detail of the crocodile upper line closing, is it coming?

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ProposalManiac

· 12h ago

The Elliott Wave Theory is essentially a mapping of a governance system—rules are strict but easily subject to selective interpretation. Your transition from W wave to X wave is actually a common scenario when mechanism design is imperfect. The point at 80600, with its early "up or down" ambiguity, was caused by information asymmetry leading to multiple equilibria. Now, saying X-a, X-b, X-c is so clear, but that's just the convenience of hindsight analysis. In real trading, who can lock in this chain of reasoning in advance? The lessons of history tell me that every time there's a "sudden realization" in technical analysis, it's often followed by a retracement that proves it wrong. That detail about the crocodile upper line is interesting—but it's also an issue of incentive compatibility. The stronger the consensus on technicals, the greater the benefits of manipulative counteractions.

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GateUser-afe07a92

· 12h ago

The wave theory really requires slow mastery to understand thoroughly. This wave analysis is much clearer now. People always sway between dilemmas; actually, it's just that the framework hasn't aligned yet. The point at 80600 is indeed a key turning point. After struggling with it for so long, I finally sorted it out. The contradiction between the five-wave and three-wave patterns has been resolved, and the subsequent thinking becomes more transparent. The detail of the crocodile line upper band is good, indicating that the bottom has indeed stabilized. If the X-c wave comes, it will be another new round of small five waves... such rhythm. Even with clearer technical analysis, it still depends on how the market plays out; it's hard to say.

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