Imagine an avalanche — when it arrives, no snowflake can escape.

Recent market changes tell us that the situation may be much more complex than most realize. A series of data points are pointing in the same direction, making it hard to believe it's just a coincidence.

First, look at the bond market. On the surface, it appears calm, but the MOVE index (a key indicator measuring bond market volatility expectations) has only recently dipped briefly, far from truly dissipating risk. The long end of the Treasury yield curve remains the heaviest source of pressure since the start of the new year.

More critically, there are changes on the buyer side. The once relentless foreign capital buying U.S. Treasuries is no longer as vigorous. China continues to reduce holdings, and Japan, although holding large amounts of debt, is extremely sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations and domestic policy signals. In the past, when foreign investors pulled back, there were other buyers to step in; now, this buffer has almost disappeared.

There are also policy variables from the Bank of Japan. The yen's depreciation pressure is forcing the BOJ to act, and each policy adjustment could trigger a reconfiguration of global arbitrage trading chains and shifts in sovereign debt flows. Once these trades are closed, the shocks are never limited to a single market — U.S. Treasuries often become the next pressure point.

Piecing these factors together, the picture becomes clear:

• Real yields remain relatively high
• Term premiums have not truly dissipated
• Liquidity supply remains tight
• Risk pricing has extended to the sovereign debt level

Even if the stock market continues to rise modestly, gold hits new all-time highs, and commodities remain strong, it doesn't mean there are no undercurrents beneath the surface. When GDP data is released or recession expectations flood the news, asset prices may have already been revalued.

2026 is likely to be more than just a slowdown in growth. It could be a year when sovereign financing pressures are concentrated and released, ultimately prompting global central banks — whether actively or passively — to re-engage with the markets.

The timing aligns, and pressures are once again accumulating in familiar places.

The trend in the bond market warrants ongoing attention, and other asset classes will eventually follow its rhythm.