#预测市场 This week looked lively, but I have to be honest—I'm a bit cautious about the prediction market.

Limitless's trading volume on Base indeed broke $270 million, even the former BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes came out to endorse it, and Coinbase Ventures' backing isn't insignificant. But I still remember the controversies over "fake trading volume." Projects like these are most afraid of false prosperity; a flashy trading volume doesn't necessarily mean the ecosystem is truly active.

Looking at the overall logic of this new token issuance—Upheaval's oversubscription of 870%, Yield Basis backed by Curve's founder, Tea choosing Coinlist for a "bottom-up" distribution... on the surface, all are supported by big names, but what I care more about are two issues: first, whether the actual trading depth of these projects can hold up after launch; second, whether early participants' profit margins have been seriously overdrawn.

Upheaval's Bonding Curve model rose from $0.01 to $0.036, and the public sale was oversubscribed. What does this mean? It indicates that market sentiment has been hyped up, but who will take over afterward? How long can liquidity mining last? I have no clear answer to these.

My advice is: if you want to participate in this new token issuance wave, don't treat it as a guaranteed profit. First, ask yourself three questions—what is the real demand for this project, how much sales pressure will there be later, and what is your exit plan? Otherwise, it could just be another beginning of being harvested. No matter how hot the prediction market gets, stay alert to the tricks of the whales.