FOMC Minutes Show Growing Disagreement

The main issue remains whether to prioritize maintaining stability or supporting growth
To support employment, rate cuts are needed, but this could lead to rising inflation
To curb inflation, no rate cuts or even rate hikes are necessary, which could result in significant unemployment

Based on past experience, the probability of the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control over employment is higher, with the 1980s even seeing rate hikes up to 24%. Such a scenario is unimaginable and hard to comprehend today.

A rate hike to 24% is quite extreme, but it also indirectly indicates the Fed's inclination. Therefore, in the absence of a clear overwhelming reason to cut rates, the default is likely to keep rates unchanged.