#预测市场 I recently read an article discussing prediction markets and AI manipulation, and I was quite shocked🤔

So prediction markets can also be "manipulated" by people?! The article gave an example: if someone buys a large amount of prediction contracts for a certain candidate, they can artificially push up the price, then media reports this "uptrend," and ordinary people see it as genuine public opinion, leading to follow-up support... This creates a false information cycle.

What’s even more unsettling is that AI has now learned to fake public opinion. In the past, polls could still be trusted, but now AI mixes fake responses with real surveys, making traditional polling unreliable. Therefore, prediction markets, which were once highly anticipated—after all, real money is at stake and it sounds more authentic than surveys—are now also at risk of manipulation😅

However, the article also mentions that successfully manipulating the market is actually quite difficult. Because once the price is pushed up, smart traders will buy the dip to arbitrage, pulling the price back down. Only if the market liquidity is very low does it become easier to manipulate over the long term.

It feels like an "information arms race"—people are constantly looking for tools that reflect true public opinion, but there are always those trying to sabotage it. The real solution seems to require cooperation from multiple parties: media should have a "liquidity floor" (only report on actively traded markets), regulators need to crack down on manipulation, and platforms should establish monitoring systems...

Suddenly I understand why so many people say "distinguishing real from fake information is even harder than buying crypto"😂 It really requires continuous learning!