In 2025, the global commodity market was split into two worlds like being cut by an invisible knife.

On one side, precious metals are collectively boiling. Gold surged from $2,624.50 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,338.76 per ounce, an increase of over 65%; even more outrageous is silver—rising from $28.91 per ounce to $74.731 per ounce, an increase of over 158%, almost becoming this year's "dark horse" in the commodity market. These two assets serve both as safe-haven tools and as part of the economic growth story.

On the other side, the situation is much bleaker. International oil prices have continued to decline under the pressure of ample supply and insufficient demand, with the entire oil and gas industry chain and related listed companies under pressure.

Why is this happening? On the surface, it seems to be driven by market sentiment, but the deeper reasons are more complex—macro cycle shifts, changes in industrial structure, and policy expectation adjustments are intertwined, ultimately shaping the market into this "ice and fire" scene.

Behind the surge in precious metals, three clues are simultaneously exerting influence. First, geopolitical risks have been hanging over the market unresolved, and concerns over uncertainty continue to rise, naturally driving safe-haven buying into gold and silver. Second, global debt issues have become more urgent, and central bank policy space is limited. Third, for markets like silver with relatively shallow scales, capital inflows amplify their elasticity several times—this also explains why its increase far exceeds that of gold.

In contrast, the situation with crude oil is another story. Weak demand coupled with ample supply creates a "double kill" pattern, making oil price rebounds powerless. As energy structure optimization and the penetration of new energy increase, the attractiveness of traditional energy is gradually declining.