2025 is about to come to an end, and this year's crypto market has been like a jumping electrocardiogram, fluctuating up and down nonstop. The real test is not in the rise and fall of the market itself, but in how to survive and learn during these fluctuations. The experience accumulated through these ups and downs has become the confidence to continue deep participation in 2026.

Let's first look at the macro signals. The December Federal Reserve meeting minutes released mixed signals — officials have no substantial disagreement on the rate cut path, but the timing and magnitude of specific actions vary. The current consensus is to maintain interest rates in January, but this is not the end of the story. More importantly, the Fed has quietly initiated a short-term government bond purchase plan, which means that the liquidity environment of the entire market will gradually loosen over the next year. For crypto assets, this is like a strong heart booster, signaling the arrival of a monetary easing cycle.

But things are not that simple. The market is now caught in a dilemma. There is obvious supply pressure above, and at the same time, the reality of year-end liquidity tightness below. In recent days, bulls have tried to push prices higher, but these rebounds are more like bait to trap sellers; the underlying trend remains weak, still in a consolidation phase within a range. Do not be fooled by superficial rises.

The key technical defense line is here. Bitcoin must hold the 86000 to 86500 range, which is a confluence of psychological price levels and technical support. Once broken, the next line of defense drops to 84000, at which point the market sentiment could really collapse. Ethereum faces a similar situation; 2880 to 2900 is the critical line. Breaking below this level, the price center of gravity will shift toward 2800.

Time factors cannot be ignored either. After New Year’s Day, institutional traders will gradually return to their posts. Before January 2, the market volatility is expected to be relatively mild, but any small movement will trigger sensitive reactions. To see a true trend reversal, one of two conditions must be met: either Bitcoin volume breaks through the 90000 level with a surge, and Ethereum simultaneously advances to 3050; or a clear daily-level support bounce reversal pattern appears at the support level. Until such signals are confirmed, don’t rush to act.

The only advice for trading strategy is: do less. Reduce trading frequency, control leverage exposure, set stop-loss and take-profit orders in advance, and spend more time observing rather than trading frequently. What happened in 2025 is no longer important; those oscillations can be seen as the market’s self-cleaning process. Every gain or loss along the way is nourishment for next year’s judgment.

The story of 2026 has not yet begun. If you always feel that your reactions are a beat slow, or that market noise is disturbing your rhythm, the best approach is to stop, take a deep breath, and wait for a clear opportunity before acting. The market is moving, but don’t rush.