The most frequently asked question recently is: What do you think about the current market? Prices are rising so quickly, is it really not a bubble?

Having worked in risk management for many years, I have some insights I want to share—rather than obsessing over daily price fluctuations, it’s better to understand the logic behind this rally. Only by grasping the underlying drivers can we judge the market’s resilience.

From a broader perspective, I’ve noticed three key variables changing:

**Openings on the Capital Supply Side**

The approval of spot ETFs is more significant than many imagine. You see, previously, large institutional funds like pension funds and insurance companies had almost no legal channels to allocate to Bitcoin. Now, with official channels available, what does that mean? It signifies a brand-new influx of capital being unlocked. This isn’t small-scale; it’s a transition from the "underground" to the "mainstream," fundamentally changing the liquidity base.

**Evolution of Policy Narratives**

Recently, there has been discussion in some countries about including Bitcoin in strategic reserves. Although still in the conceptual stage, the market is already digesting this signal. Once such policies are implemented, the supply-demand relationship will undergo structural changes. Think about it—if demand at the national level intervenes, the scale of that demand is on a completely different level. This shifts the fundamental perception of Bitcoin—from a speculative asset to a store of value.

**Recalibration of Valuation Frameworks**

The market often compares Bitcoin to gold. Gold’s total market cap is about $18 trillion, while Bitcoin is just over one-tenth of that. This comparison itself is quite interesting—if Bitcoin can gradually take on the role of a "store of value," then in the long term, discussions about valuation space are no longer fanciful. It doesn’t necessarily mean reaching gold’s scale, but this reference provides us with a perspective for thinking.

**So, what about the $100,000 price level?**

Honestly, round-number levels often reflect psychological expectations. More importantly, it’s crucial to understand what logic supports the assets you hold.

For ordinary investors like us, there’s a useful saying: If you don’t understand it, don’t touch it; if you do, only invest within your risk tolerance. Don’t blindly follow FOMO. Additionally, maintaining an understanding and learning about new assets within your overall asset allocation framework is itself a form of long-term investment literacy.

These are some of my thoughts, and I hope they can offer you a different perspective.