#美联储利率政策 Seeing Citibank's latest employment data forecast, what flashes through my mind is the period before the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, it was the same — data would fluctuate between good and bad, and the market would sway amidst conflicting signals until the real storm arrived.

In October, 45,000 jobs were lost, only to rebound with an increase of 80,000 in November. On the surface, it looks like a recovery, but Citibank's economists have pointed out the essence — this is more a seasonal adjustment trick rather than a true improvement in the labor market. The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.52%. This slight increase might be insignificant in normal times, but at a moment when the Federal Reserve is deeply divided and interest rates have fallen to a three-year low, every percentage point reflects policymakers' anxiety.

I've seen this scene too many times. Whether it's high inflation or weak employment, policymakers always choose between these two demons. The same debate happened in 2016, and what was the result? Everything became more complicated. The current dilemma is that the data itself is sending confusing signals, and seasonal adjustments make it even harder to discern the truth.

Next Tuesday's non-farm payroll report will serve as a fulcrum. If the market continues to sway amidst contradictions, it means the pricing logic of liquidity is beginning to loosen. What we need is not more data, but to see clearly whether the economy is truly recovering or deteriorating behind these figures. History tells me that the most dangerous moments often occur when everyone is arguing over the details.