Grayscale 2026 Outlook: Regulatory Reshaping the Market, Quantum Threats Are Still Premature

As 2025 draws to a close, the world’s leading digital asset management firm Grayscale has released its latest research report, setting the tone for market trends in 2026. The report highlights that investor focus is centered on two issues: when Washington will establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets and whether advances in quantum computing pose an imminent threat to blockchain security.

In Grayscale’s view, one of these topics will reshape the market in the short term, while the other is more of a distraction rather than a market driver.

01 Regulatory Focus: The Market Structure Bill Will Be Finalized

Grayscale expects a bipartisan cryptocurrency market structure bill to become law in 2026, marking a significant milestone for the asset class.

The global cryptocurrency market is currently undergoing a structural shift, with the gradual clarification of the US regulatory framework seen as a key driver of this transformation. While key details are still under negotiation, analysts indicate that the overall direction is clear.

Legislators are moving toward establishing a manual of rules for cryptocurrencies similar to traditional financial markets, covering registration and disclosure requirements, clearer classification of digital assets, and protections for insiders.

A more complete and coordinated US regulatory framework (and possibly in other major economies) could have tangible impacts on adoption.

Clarifying regulations will make financial institutions more willing to include digital assets on their balance sheets, and increased legal clarity may encourage institutions to trade directly on blockchain. This development will mark the early stage of the cryptocurrency market entering a more “institutionalized” era.

02 Institutional Era: Chain Reaction of Regulatory Clarity

As regulation becomes clearer, institutional funds are steadily entering the cryptocurrency market. Since the launch of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024, global crypto ETFs have recorded approximately $87 billion in net inflows.

Although these products have achieved initial success, the process of integrating crypto assets into mainstream portfolios is still in its early stages. Take Gate, for example, a leading global crypto trading platform, which celebrated its 12th anniversary in 2025, with its global user base surpassing 47 million.

In terms of core trading capabilities, Gate continues to strengthen its underlying strength, with spot trading volume and liquidity ranking second globally, and derivatives trading volume and overall strength remaining in the top three worldwide.

A more complete regulatory framework means that compliant trading platforms like Gate will be able to offer safer, more convenient services to institutional investors. This integration is expected to promote the regulated trading of digital asset securities and may enable startups and established companies to conduct issuance activities on-chain.

03 Quantum Threats: The Gap Between Theory and Reality

Contrasting sharply with the “urgency” of regulation, Grayscale considers concerns about quantum computing to be reasonable but believes that the importance of this topic is exaggerated for 2026.

The company expects this issue to generate headlines and debates but states it is unlikely to have a substantial impact on asset prices in the short term. Grayscale acknowledges that, in theory, sufficiently powerful quantum computers could undermine current cryptographic standards by deriving private keys from public keys.

However, the organization believes these risks currently seem distant. While the market may eventually evaluate them based on blockchain’s ability to withstand quantum challenges, they are unlikely to influence valuations meaningfully next year.

The unique threat of quantum computing to the crypto space lies in the fact that it could trigger systemic collapse even without a true technological breakthrough. In this highly confidence-dependent market, any rumors or research papers about quantum computing progress could become the last straw that breaks the market.

04 Countermeasures: The Blockchain Community’s Proactive Preparation

Although Grayscale believes the impact of quantum threats on the 2026 market will be limited, the blockchain community is not sitting idly by.

2025 marked a turning point in the Bitcoin community’s attitude toward quantum computing threats, shifting from theoretical discussion to engineering preparedness. The annual report from the Bitcoin Core development community (Optech) shows that Bitcoin is undergoing a paradigm shift from “passive defense” to “active evolution.”

One key defensive approach is “post-quantum cryptography,” which, despite its costs, is being urged for immediate deployment. This is mainly because “pre-emptive acquisition and decryption” attacks are already underway.

Such attacks involve adversaries storing encrypted traffic now and decrypting it later when quantum computers become available. Nation-state-level adversaries are certainly archiving large volumes of encrypted communications from sensitive targets to decrypt them in the future.

But importantly, most blockchains are not easily susceptible to this HNDL attack. Most non-privacy chains, like today’s Bitcoin and Ethereum, primarily use cryptography for transaction authorization—namely, digital signatures—not encryption.

Bitcoin’s blockchain is public; quantum threats involve signature forgery, not decrypting already public transaction data. This eliminates the immediate cryptographic urgency posed by HNDL attacks.

05 Market Reaction: The Unexpected Rise of Privacy Assets

An interesting phenomenon is that, amid the dual topics of regulation and quantum computing, privacy-related assets performed notably in Q4 2025.

Grayscale’s research shows that privacy-preserving tokens like Zcash (ZEC) performed especially well during this quarter, with increased usage of “shielded” accounts and transactions in 2025. Other privacy protocols such as Monero (XMR), Dash (DASH), and Decred (DCR) also performed well.

This trend indicates that as blockchain becomes more integrated into traditional finance, the demand for privacy tools is becoming more apparent. As Grayscale notes in the report: “Privacy is a normal part of financial systems, and if public blockchains are to be more deeply integrated into finance, they will need stronger privacy infrastructure.”

As of December 31, 2025, on the Gate trading platform, Bitcoin was priced at $88,707, with a 24-hour change of +0.24%. Ethereum was at $2,981, with a 24-hour change of +0.25%. The Fear & Greed Index is in extreme fear, perhaps reflecting market caution in the face of complex issues like regulation and quantum threats.

Future Outlook

At the time of Grayscale’s report release, Gate just published its 2025 year-end review video, announcing that user numbers have surpassed 47 million. As one of the platforms with the largest publicly disclosed reserves of cryptocurrencies, Gate’s total reserve ratio is as high as 124%, covering nearly 500 user assets.

From Bitcoin to privacy tokens, from regulatory frameworks to quantum defenses, the cryptocurrency market is forming a new landscape under multiple forces. Blockchains like Bitcoin have already begun to systematically address quantum threats.

The regulatory “shoe” is about to drop, and the alarm over quantum computing, though distant, has never stopped echoing. For ordinary investors, understanding these macro trends and choosing secure, compliant, and transparent trading platforms like Gate may be the best strategy to navigate this complex market steadily.