#预测市场 Looking at the recent data fluctuations in the prediction market over the past couple of days, I have to be honest—this is a classic scene of information warfare.

Hassett dropped straight from 85% to 42%, Wosh surged from 7% to 48%, and the speed of these changes is more like someone stirring the pot rather than rational analysis. The keywords are very eye-catching: "Too close to the President" has become a point deduction, which is common in political games, but it’s so obvious in the prediction market that it indicates significant capital behind the scenes is orchestrating.

This reminds me of the tactics I’ve seen in on-chain project hype—initially a direction is heavily promoted, then suddenly the sentiment shifts, retail investors are still chasing highs, while the big players are already offloading. The prediction market appears to be a "democratic vote," but in reality, it’s also subject to the curse of information asymmetry.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s comments are even more worth pondering—his ambiguous phrase "Both are very talented" was just enough for the market to interpret it as support for Wosh. What does this mean? It indicates that someone is waiting for this signal, pre-setting the trading direction.

The old saying still holds: never be fooled by probability numbers in the prediction market. They’re not the truth—they’re the consensus of the wealthiest. Retail investors chasing highs and lows in these places are just like chasing trends in the crypto world back in the day; the biggest losers are always those following the herd. The key is to identify who is manipulating public opinion, rather than being scared off by the fluctuations in numbers.