#美联储利率政策 When I saw Federal Reserve Williams say that the next move is "still too early," I knew the market was about to start speculating again.

I've heard this kind of rhetoric too many times — when cutting rates, they say the data supports it; when it's time to continue, they say we need to wait for more data. The problem is, retail investors and small funds are always impatient, and they are the easiest to be caught in this "uncertainty." The pitfalls I've fallen into over the years are exactly like this: seeing a policy shift and rushing in, only to be slapped in the face by the opposite move.

Careful observation of this signal reveals it to be quite subtle — slowing employment and easing inflation support last week's rate cut, but the impact of tariffs won't be digested until next year. What does this mean? It means there's a high probability of policy expectations fluctuating in the coming months.

My current approach is: when such vague policy signals appear, I adhere to two principles. First, avoid chasing hype, and definitely don't FOMO into the market just because "a rate cut might happen." Second, keep your powder dry — you never know when the next black swan will arrive, and those holding cash have the upper hand.

Remember, the market loves to stage dramas amid uncertainty, and most people are most likely to make mistakes at this very time.