Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon in the market—there is a clear divergence between market expectations of rate cuts and the actual actions the Federal Reserve is likely to take. This disagreement is becoming a key contradiction in the current crypto market.

First, let's look at what the market is thinking: after inflation data improves, many people start to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of rapid and consecutive rate cuts. Imagine that scene—liquidity floods in, risk assets especially altcoins surge accordingly. This logic makes sense on paper.

But what is the reality? By the end of 2025, the Federal Reserve will have indeed cut rates three times, but the interest rate level remains ridiculously high, roughly near the highest levels since 2008. More importantly, there is disagreement within the Fed about the rate cut path in 2026. The latest policy expectations suggest that there might only be one rate cut throughout 2026. You see, from the market's expectation of "continuous rapid rate cuts" to the actual possibility of "once a year," the gap is significant.

For the crypto market, this is no small matter. Our sensitivity to macro liquidity can be said to be top-tier. If rate cut expectations fall short, the current sentiment recovery could be easily interrupted, and volatility will likely increase.

Talking about specific tokens, let's discuss a few you mentioned:

**Privacy coins like Zcash**—their fate is basically tied to two things: the regulatory policy direction and the market cycle of demand for anonymity technology. During periods of uncertain liquidity expectations, these coins are usually not the market's preferred allocation, and their resilience is relatively limited.

**New public chains like Sui**—their short-term performance still depends on ecosystem enthusiasm and capital sentiment. In the face of major uncertainties, emerging tracks, although imaginative, are also prone to being abandoned.

**Cardano's situation**—depends on whether it can truly make breakthroughs in smart contracts and DeFi applications. Under macro pressure, fundamental support becomes even more critical.

Overall, at this point in time, it is especially important to pay attention to the gap between market consensus and actual policy. It could determine the rhythm of volatility over the next half year or so.