Can December Chicago PMI rebound as scheduled? Even if it does, it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend of U.S. manufacturing. The consensus among economists and industry insiders is clear — this is just a short-term fix, not a true recovery.

Just look at the current situation. AI chip manufacturing has absorbed a large number of orders and investments, but traditional manufacturing is still struggling in the mud. Costs cannot be reduced, demand cannot pick up, and companies simply pass the tariff burdens onto consumers, resulting in rising inflation. In the end, consumer demand declines again. This creates a vicious cycle — high costs → weak demand → reduced production → increased unemployment.

Where is the real trouble? First, finding people. The U.S. vocational education system has long fallen behind the needs of modern factories, and there is a severe shortage of versatile skilled workers. Second, policy headaches. Tariff policies fluctuate unpredictably, and no one knows what the situation will be next month, causing companies to freeze their investment and hiring plans. This uncertainty is the biggest blow to growth.

Industry insiders believe that if these issues are not addressed, the decline in manufacturing could continue until the second half of 2026. Some experts even warn that with trade protectionism, talent shortages, and other problems piling up, the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession is already close to 50%. To truly turn the situation around, it is necessary to abandon protective tariffs, optimize the global supply chain, and significantly increase investment in vocational education — none of which can be achieved in the short term.