U.S. Economic Data Incoming, Market Volatility Ahead

Tonight, the U.S. will release two important economic indicators in succession: the initial jobless claims (for the week ending December 27) at 21:30 and the EIA crude oil inventory data (for the week ending December 26) at 23:30. Both reports are highly significant and are expected to have a notable impact on the U.S. stock market and crude oil prices.

First, let's look at initial jobless claims. The previous week’s figure stood at 214,000, and market expectations this time are for an increase to 220,000. This number appears to be a slight rise, but the implications are profound. If the actual number exceeds expectations, it indicates that the U.S. employment market is beginning to show signs of pressure, which could reinforce investors’ expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would increase the likelihood of gains in U.S. stocks. Conversely, if the figure is lower than expected, it suggests that employment remains resilient, and the urgency for a rate cut diminishes, potentially putting some selling pressure on U.S. stocks.

The comparison for EIA crude oil inventory is even more striking. Last week, inventories increased by 405,000 barrels, but this week’s expectation is a significant decrease of 867,000 barrels. What does this inverse change imply? If inventories truly decline sharply, it indicates either robust demand for crude oil or tight supply, which could lead to a breakout in oil prices. However, if the actual inventory change is not as large or even increases, oil prices may face downward correction.

Currently, traders are paying the highest attention to these two sets of data. Short-term market movements are sure to be volatile after the data release, and investors need to stay alert and ready to adjust their strategies quickly based on the actual results.