Every turning point in the market is a test. Those who stubbornly refuse to cut losses will eventually be forced out or see their accounts shrink together with the market.

Do you remember the big drop in mid-last month? Many people were already shouting that a crash was coming. Yet, in the comment section, some still argued that this was just a rebound and the bull market was not over. Now, looking back at those comments, I have to say the people who issued warnings really nailed the timing.

What about those friends who were eagerly waiting for a rebound back then? They should probably regret it now. But don’t rush to regret. Instead of dwelling on the past, it’s better to learn some real skills. Today, I’ll share a set of market judgment methods I’ve developed. This logic has been tested repeatedly and proven reliable.

**The Three-Stage Pattern After Bitcoin’s Major Drop**

Many people simply don’t understand how the early stage of a bear market unfolds. They panic at the first drop and get overly excited at any rise. How can they make money like that? The core idea is actually very simple—remember this:

After a market peaks and then sharply declines, in the first two weeks, it generally won’t break through the lows directly. Instead, it follows a fixed process—natural rebound → secondary bottom → retest of the high. Only after these three steps are completed does the market enter a true deep decline.

Does that sound like a pattern? Actually, it is just a pattern. It’s not some mysterious market science; it’s a direct reflection of capital game dynamics. After a sharp drop, greedy traders rush in to buy the dip, creating a rebound. Then, large holders who are deeply trapped take the opportunity to exit, leading to a secondary bottom. Finally, the bulls aren’t willing to give up and make one last struggle, pushing the price up to confirm the previous high. After these three acts, the real show begins.

**Historical Data Speaks**

Looking at recent charts, the pattern is astonishing:

At the end of 2021, during that big crash, the market rebounded to the top on the third day after the sharp decline, then on the 23rd day, it retested the high, which was slightly above the previous rebound high. After that, it was a waterfall-like plunge.

In March 2024, the rebound was completed by day seven, and by day 19, it broke through the previous high. Many people started cheering, thinking the bull market was truly back. But then, a new round of sharp decline slapped them in the face.

The pattern is right there—it's up to you whether you dare to believe it.