#美联储利率政策 Seeing Milan's recent statement, a scene from 2015 flashed through my mind.

Remember back then, the Federal Reserve had just begun its rate hike cycle, and the market was full of bearish voices. Bitcoin was oscillating downward from its high. But the real turning point had actually been set long before—when policymakers started openly admitting that their "stance was too tight," it often meant something was about to loosen. History has a strange way of repeating itself here.

The current situation is somewhat like a mirror image of that period. When rate cuts just began, the next step was "hidden QE"—purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bonds. This isn't a new concept, but the wording is very deliberate. Saying it's not quantitative easing actually means paving the way for real QE. From balance sheet reduction to net injections, it's a switch in the signal light.

The most intriguing detail is that Milan specifically emphasized the "non-linear" and "difficult to reverse" deterioration of the labor market—this indicates they've already seen some risk signals. The lagging effects of monetary policy make them hesitant to wait any longer. Federal funds futures expect another 50 basis points cut within the first nine months of 2026, reflecting concrete concerns about a recession.

Anyone who has experienced multiple cycles knows that when officials start adjusting expectations so intensively and releasing mild signals, the market often hasn't yet realized the true extent of the risks. Crypto markets are always most sensitive to liquidity. This "mild" policy environment can indeed provide support, but don't confuse support with a reversal. History tells us that the best approach is always to stay vigilant during such policy transitions, rather than being blindly optimistic.