#预测市场 🤔 Recently came across a somewhat frightening topic—predictive markets can also be manipulated?? I thought this was a very objective thing...

After reading an article, I realized that some people manipulate the price of a candidate through large transactions, and once the news media reports it, the onlookers are really led by the nose😅 The most outrageous thing is that such incidents have happened before in history—there were attempts to manipulate betting markets in the 1916 elections, and during the 2004 Berlin elections, political parties even directly sent emails to members to crash the market... I, as a newbie, never expected this.

But what’s most interesting is that research shows that although such manipulation can influence prices in the short term, the costs are huge, and clever traders quickly arbitrage it back. It’s like someone desperately pushes up a number, and others immediately see it as a profit opportunity and sell off without hesitation🎯

However, when these predictive markets are mixed with news and social media, the problem becomes serious—even if the success rate of manipulation isn’t high, the trust crisis caused can be more terrifying than the actual impact. When I look at market information now, do I also need to be more cautious?🤔