2025-12-31 05:30:25

#数字资产动态追踪 $ETH $BTC $ZEC 🚨The US stock market's 2025 celebration comes to an end, and the 2026 crypto market faces a major test

In 2025, the US stock market hit a record high, with the S&P 500 soaring, but warning signs have already appeared. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell openly stated that stock prices are "quite overvalued," and the Shiller Price-to-Earnings ratio has risen to 40.74, just one step away from the internet bubble peak of 44.19. Looking at historical data, every time the Shiller P/E reaches this level, the subsequent market decline ranges from 20% to 89%.

Even more concerning are the political uncertainties. The Trump administration has clearly pressured the Federal Reserve, demanding aggressive rate cuts to 1%, and even threatening to sue Powell. Currently, the Fed maintains interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, with only a hint of a rate cut in 2026. This internal political struggle in the US directly affects the global liquidity landscape — the part that the crypto community cares most about.

Once the rate cut expectations are realized, a large influx of liquidity will flood into high-risk assets, and the crypto market is likely to rally in tandem; but if political interference undermines the Fed's independence, concerns about the credit system will intensify, and risk assets could face a bloodbath. The rate cut expectations in 2018 caused Bitcoin to drop over 30% in a single month, with nearly 200,000 traders liquidated. This time, the stakes are higher, and the volatility could be even more fierce.

From an investment perspective, those projects with real application foundations and mainstream coins with ample liquidity are the ones that can withstand shocks. Purely narrative-driven altcoins are at the greatest risk in a high-volatility environment. If a rate cut cycle truly occurs in the first half of 2026, it will be an opportunity window for the crypto market; but if political uncertainty continues to escalate, the crypto community's test has only just begun.

What do you think will happen in this wave of market movement? Can your holdings withstand 2026?

ETH0,04%

BTC-1,11%

ZEC-1,44%

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BearMarketGardener

· 2025-12-31 06:00

Shiller's P/E ratio is approaching bubble top levels, this time really different... Powell being ridden by Trump, the Federal Reserve's independence is lacking, and it's really hard to say how liquidity will be handled. Holding mainly mainstream coins, I already cut losses on altcoins. If interest rates really cut in 2026, it will take off; if political turmoil continues... well, then it depends on who can survive until then. As long as I hold BTC, I can sleep peacefully, but I'm worried it's not a rate cut but a wave of liquidations. History always repeats, but this time the stakes are definitely higher. --- Standing on Powell's side, is Bitcoin really going to lie flat? I don't really believe this wave can turn around. --- Damn, facing another test. When can I safely hold coins? --- So the key still depends on how politics plays out; liquidity is the king. --- I haven't touched any narrative coins, just holding onto BTC, ETH, and other news.

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UnluckyMiner

· 2025-12-31 05:59

Powell said overestimating is overestimating anyway, I just don't understand it, just hold BTC tightly and that's it. If the rate cut in 2026 really happens, then worthless coins will die as they should, and we just wait for mainstream coins to surge. Hey, do you think Trump can really make the Federal Reserve go broke? That would make the crypto world interesting. Hold on to mainstream coins, the only way out for retail investors. Basically, it's still a gamble on liquidity. When rate cuts come, we celebrate; political turmoil causes margin calls. There's no third way. Single coins die the fastest, I remember this sentence.

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DataChief

· 2025-12-31 05:56

Schiller PE is almost at the top, is this time really going to play out a "big drop" scenario? I think it still depends on whether the rate cut can be implemented; otherwise, the crypto market will have to suffer the same losses as the US stock market. Hold tight to mainstream coins; this wave of altcoins is definitely for the leeks to be harvested. If Powell is really pushed out by Trump, that would be a gamble-level move, and liquidity tightening would cause the coin prices to crash through immediately. Currently holding 50% of positions in cash, the rest is betting on whether there will be a rate cut window in the first half of 2026; otherwise, it’s just too exciting. I remember clearly the 2018 wave, where prices were halved in a month. This time, the scale is bigger and definitely more tragic. But on the other hand, political interference might actually force the government to loosen monetary policy, and then it would be another story.

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 2025-12-31 05:49

Powell said overestimating me, I really believe it, this time it's really going to be bad If the rate cut really happens, I'm going all in, political intervention is truly terrifying Shitty altcoins, mainstream coins will be steady this wave In the first half of 2026, all in or all out, no middle ground Bitcoin can withstand it, my broken position is hanging by a thread Political uncertainties are more despairing than the decline itself Will history repeat itself? I'm exhausted Rate cut expectations vs. political risks, betting on who comes first Liquidity decides everything, this is the crypto world Last time 200,000 people got liquidated, this time it might double

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