2025-12-31 04:22:02

This week, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes were released, with the committee voting 9 to 3 to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. The current U.S. inflation rate remains at 2.8%, and officials are divided on the outlook for the labor market, with most supporting continued easing. The Fed forecasts that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target by 2028.

From a market perspective, the minutes reflect a cautious attitude within the Federal Reserve regarding the economic outlook. Downside risks to employment have become a key factor influencing policy tilt, indicating that there is still room for further rate cuts. For investors tracking the dollar trend and interest rate environment, such policy signals directly impact the asset allocation logic for risk assets.

Additionally, the global commodities market is also adjusting. OPEC+ announced it will continue to delay oil production increases, which is especially significant amid tense geopolitical situations—tensions in Yemen have escalated, with a Saudi-led coalition conducting military operations in the port of Mukalla, further increasing uncertainty in energy prices.

On the domestic policy front, the 2026 "Two New" policy optimization implementation plan has been released, and the rural contracted land pilot will be systematically rolled out across the province. These structural reforms support long-term economic stability. Combining these signals, the macro environment is at a crossroads of policy adjustments and risk reassessment.

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RunWithRugs

· 01-03 04:20

Another rate cut, the dollar must be panicking now, is the crypto market about to take off? Rate cuts, rate cuts, just know about rate cuts. Can't we stabilize employment first? It won't return to 2% until 2028, how long do we have to wait... OPEC is causing trouble again, this wave of oil prices is probably going to rise further. Passed with a 9 to 3 vote, it seems there are significant internal disagreements. Is there room for further rate cuts? When can I finally bottom out my dollar holdings? This round of policy adjustments involves high risk reassessment; retail investors really can't handle it. Oil prices are set to surge again, and domestic inflation pressures are also coming. The main risk is the downward trend in employment; it seems the US economy isn't as optimistic as it appears. With a dual approach of rate cuts and rising commodity prices, how will this macro situation unfold?

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UnluckyLemur

· 01-03 02:27

The 25bp rate cut is coming again. It feels like the Federal Reserve has so little room for maneuver. --- Will it take until 2028 to return to 2%? How long do I have to wait? By then, I might be locked in. --- They only just started paying attention to the downside risks to employment? Why didn't they do this earlier? --- Energy is hard to say. If the geopolitical situation continues like this, oil prices will have to rise. --- Long-term optimism for rural contracted land reform. It can really stabilize the economy. --- There are still 3 dissenting votes out of 9 to 3, quite divided internally. --- The dollar is going to depreciate again, right? Time to adjust the portfolio. --- Speaking of OPEC's production freeze, it's to support oil prices. --- Inflation is at 2.8% and hasn't fallen to 2%. The rate cut this time feels strange. --- How should risk assets be allocated? I'm feeling very confused right now.

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Frontrunner

· 01-03 02:19

Interest rate cuts are coming again. The 9 to 3 vote seems quite consistent, but what does the 3 opposing votes indicate? Some people are still worried about inflation. Wait, only returning to 2% in 2028? Isn't that target set too loosely? Will the market buy into it? The energy sector is indeed chaotic. OPEC is sticking to its production cuts, and the Middle East is at war again. I just want to know where oil prices will finally head. Rural real estate reform? How does that relate to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts? Are domestic policies also easing? The 9:3 situation is interesting, indicating that the Federal Reserve still has disagreements and isn't united. This minutes seem to show a very moderate policy. Should risk assets rebound now? Is employment data so important? It feels like the tug-of-war between employment and inflation never ends.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 2025-12-31 04:39

Interest rate cuts are coming again, but this time it's different. The employment vote was 9 to 3 in favor, indicating some real panic. --- It won't return to 2% until 2028, which is three years from now. Who can say what the market will look like then? --- Energy prices are set to rise again. If tensions in the Middle East flare up and the Fed cuts interest rates again, we're just waiting for a black swan event. --- There’s also movement in rural areas. It seems like they want to stabilize growth. These policies are really trying to save the economy. --- The 9 to 3 vote had 3 opposed, indicating that the Federal Reserve is also divided. There might still be some drama ahead. --- Risk assets need to be reallocated. Is it time to buy the dip or keep running? It seems like we have to watch OPEC’s stance. --- An inflation rate of 2.8% isn't really low. With the rate cut, a bunch of problems have arisen. What about currency devaluation? --- The term "downward employment risk" doesn't sound good. It feels like a recession might not be far off.

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ETHReserveBank

· 2025-12-31 04:39

9 to 3 vote, determined to cut interest rates, but inflation is still hovering around 2.8%, which feels a bit crazy. Employment is concerning, I can understand why they are eager to loosen monetary policy, but the question is how far can they go? Oil prices are even more complicated. OPEC is cutting production, and conflicts have erupted again in the Middle East. The energy chess game is becoming more complex. While domestic reforms are underway, the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy. At this point, you need to think carefully about your holdings. The interest rate cut cycle has just begun, and there’s more to come. Waiting until 2028 for inflation to return to 2%? How long will that take, and how many market shocks will occur in the meantime?

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PonziDetector

· 2025-12-31 04:36

Another rate cut is coming. The Federal Reserve still wants to continue easing, but I think there's a lot of underlying issues behind the 9 versus 3 voting split. Exactly, once employment issues arise, they start to panic. Returning to the 2% target only by 2028? That's laughable, just delaying the inevitable. Energy prices are still going to rise. The Middle East is causing trouble, OPEC refuses to increase production, and retail investors are going to get cut again. The domestic rural land reform is good in the long run, but it's hard to predict how the market will react in the short term. Let's wait and see. Once risk re-evaluation happens, those who can't run fast will be the chives.

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FlashLoanPrince

· 2025-12-31 04:31

Interest rate cuts are coming again, but employment is still far from being in sync, with the Fed uncertain about the future. Waiting until 2028 to return to 2%? Brother, that's several years away, and I’m afraid it might never happen. Oil prices are swinging wildly due to geopolitical tensions; friends holding positions should be cautious. The domestic "Two New" reforms aim to stabilize the market, and I believe there are more developments to come. The US dollar keeps depreciating, so risk assets need to be reallocated. In this current situation, instead of guessing blindly, it's better to see how OPEC will play its hand. Employment data has become a pawn; well, let's continue to wait for rate cuts, everyone.

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OnchainDetectiveBing

· 2025-12-31 04:26

The Federal Reserve has started easing again. This 25bp cut still doesn't seem enough; there will likely be more to come.

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