2025-12-31 04:10:17

#数字资产市场动态 Some thoughts on Bitcoin

The bottom cycle timing comparison is quite interesting. The last cycle took 79 days from peak to trough, with 40 days of consolidation at the bottom. In this cycle, it’s been 85 days from the high to now, with 40 days at the bottom. It lines up.

The next move is basically two scenarios. One is continued decline, with selling off and then further drops. The other is accumulation, similar to the low point in the previous cycle.

Personally, I lean more towards the second scenario. Looking at several details in the market—rapid rises and falls, repeated shakeouts—these actions haven't finished. The bottom pattern is gradually rising, indicating some buyers are still in. The key point is that there’s no large right shoulder pattern forming, which, according to candlestick conventions, usually means the rebound hasn't arrived yet.

If it’s truly accumulation, there are two possible paths. One is more straightforward: breaking through the 90,000 level, stabilizing, then going long with a target of 100,000. The other is more aggressive—using news to trigger an ultimate shakeout, breaking all support levels, then quickly bouncing back and rushing toward 100,000.

$BTC

BTC0,39%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

22 Likes

Reward
22
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AirdropDreamer

· 01-03 02:00

I also noticed the detail of the bottom pattern rising. It seems that there are indeed large investors still picking up the slack.

View OriginalReply0

LuckyBearDrawer

· 01-02 11:24

The data matches quite closely, but I always feel that this kind of cycle theory has a bit of a hindsight bias... By the way, is it really true that the bottom pattern is still rising now? I think it looks a bit uncertain.

View OriginalReply0

ColdWalletGuardian

· 01-01 02:09

The digital cycle aligned with this logic sounds good, but I still have to say that history never repeats exactly. The numbers 79 days and 85 days happen to match up, but the next step really depends on the funding situation. Even the most perfect technical analysis can be shattered by a single news event.

View OriginalReply0

GhostAddressMiner

· 2025-12-31 04:38

79 days to 85 days... I usually don't believe in things that match numbers, I trust more in the on-chain address movements. Those large wallet holders have already been laying out in the shadows. You look at the candlestick charts, I focus on how the coins are flowing.

View OriginalReply0

ForkThisDAO

· 2025-12-31 04:37

The timing is so tight, it's kind of interesting, but to be honest, reviewing this makes Zhuge Liang too easy. Breaking 90,000 is the key; right now, anything else is just a waste of time.

View OriginalReply0

ChainProspector

· 2025-12-31 04:35

Using data benchmarking is still an interesting approach; a 79-day cycle with 40 days of allocation is indeed being replayed this time. However, I still think it depends on the market maker's mood—whether to continue accumulating or to keep smashing depends entirely on how the capital flows are inclined.

View OriginalReply0

WalletManager

· 2025-12-31 04:26

The cycle data matches, but it depends on how the on-chain funds are moving. Looking only at the candlestick charts can easily lead to being trapped. I think the key is to see whether the large investors' private keys are in accumulate or distribute mode, only then can we judge the authenticity of the accumulation.

View OriginalReply0

FOMOrektGuy

· 2025-12-31 04:10

Wow, this cycle comparison is too perfect, 79+40 is exactly the same as 85+40, there's something to it.

View OriginalReply0