The Fed's recent actions are worth a close look. The 25bp rate cut was expected, but the key factor is the reserve management purchase plan—$40 billion scale, launched in December, continuing until April 2026. This is essentially a turning point from balance sheet reduction to net injection.

Combined with the pricing of federal funds futures indicating two more rate cuts within the first nine months of 2026, the policy environment is indeed becoming more moderate. The early injection of liquidity has a supporting effect on the crypto market—not only improving psychological expectations but also, more importantly, on-chain funding will gradually reflect this easing signal.

Recently, focus can be placed on institutional fund inflows, especially the movements of large-position addresses. When the policy window opens, whales usually lead the way.