Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Evolution: A Decade Journey from $145 to $88K

In the world of digital assets, nothing excites investors more than Bitcoin’s successive bull runs. From being ignored in 2009 to becoming a core option in global asset allocation today, this cryptocurrency has experienced five significant bull markets. Each cycle has its unique driving forces and market characteristics—sometimes driven by technological advancements, sometimes accelerated by institutional recognition, and other times ignited by regulatory breakthroughs.

The Three Core Engines Driving Bitcoin’s Bull Market

When analyzing Bitcoin’s multiple upward cycles, we find three recurring key factors.

Scarcity Logic of the Halving Events

Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap is 21 million coins. The four-year halving mechanism reduces new coin issuance by 50%. Historical data clearly demonstrates the power of this pattern: after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged 5200%; after the 2016 halving, it increased 315%; and following the 2020 halving, it rose 230%. The upcoming fourth halving in April 2024 follows this pattern as well, with the release of supply pressure often correlating with price increases.

Institutional Capital Entry Points

From the large allocations by publicly listed companies like MicroStrategy in 2020-2021 to the massive inflows following the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, we observe a clear shift in capital structure. The $1 billion institutional inflow that year has evolved into continuous net inflows of hundreds of billions of dollars today. This is not driven by emotion but by a systemic change in asset allocation.

Policy and Regulatory Shifts

Events such as the Cyprus banking crisis in 2013, the ICO boom in 2017, and policy tilt after the US presidential election in 2024—all profoundly influence participant confidence. When regulation shifts from “crackdown” to “recognition” and then to “support,” market expectations for Bitcoin’s future also undergo qualitative changes.

A Complete Record of Five Upward Cycles

2013: $145 → $1,200 (+730%)

This year marked Bitcoin’s first entry into the public eye. During the Cyprus banking crisis, people began seriously considering the value of a “digital treasury.” The price soared from $145 in May to $1,200 in December, but subsequent Mt. Gox events (handling 70% of global Bitcoin transactions) led to a trust crisis, with prices falling to around $300 in 2014. This cycle exposed issues—exchange security, infrastructure fragility—that spurred industry improvements.

2017: $1,000 → $20,000 (+1,900%)

The ICO boom ignited speculative enthusiasm of that era. Retail investors flooded in, with 24-hour trading volume growing from $200 million at the start of the year to $15 billion by year-end—a 75-fold increase. But regulatory crackdowns followed—China banning ICOs and domestic exchanges, US SEC expressing concerns—leading Bitcoin into a bear market in 2018, with a final low of $3,200 (an 84% drop from the high).

2020-2021: $8,000 → $64,000 (+700%)

This was the era of institutional recognition. Companies like Tesla, Square, MicroStrategy incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, not for trading but as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin futures and non-US ETF approvals provided compliant pathways for institutions. Institutional holdings surpassed 125,000 coins, with over $10 billion in capital. However, the euphoria was short-lived; in July 2021, China’s “mining ban” and regulatory concerns caused prices to fall from $64,000 to $30,000.

2024 to Present: $40,000 → $88,730 (+122%)

This cycle is characterized by institutionalization. The approval of spot ETFs opened the door for traditional investors. BlackRock’s IBIT product alone holds 467,000 Bitcoin, with total Bitcoin ETF holdings exceeding 1 million coins. Although current prices have retreated from the all-time high of $93,000 in November to $88,730, the 24-hour trading volume remains at $867 million, reflecting market activity. The rise from $40,000 to $88,730 demonstrates the cycle’s strong momentum.

How to Recognize Signals of an Imminent Bull Market

For investors aiming to seize opportunities in the next rally, these indicators are worth monitoring:

On-Chain Data Reflecting Reality

When exchange-held Bitcoin declines, it often indicates holders are moving coins offline—an optimistic sign. Simultaneously, increased inflows of stablecoins suggest large funds are preparing to buy. Both signals appeared in 2024—institutions quietly accumulating, retail FOMO following suit.

Technical Breakouts

RSI surpassing 70, or prices breaking above the 200-day moving average—these classic technical indicators still work for Bitcoin. Each genuine rally has been accompanied by confirmation of these signals.

Macro Environment Shifts

Interest rate policies, inflation expectations, geopolitical risks—these factors determine whether institutional funds flow into Bitcoin as a hedge/growth asset. The shift in US policy towards “friendly crypto” in 2024 has become a significant emotional driver.

Potential New Variables for the Next Rally

Establishment of National Reserves

El Salvador has incorporated over 2,900 Bitcoin as national reserves. Bhutan’s 13,000 Bitcoin managed by Druk Holdings makes it the country’s largest holder. If the US passes legislation to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, the pressure on global supply would be unimaginable.

Bitcoin Layer 2 Expansion Plans

Approval of OP_CAT upgrade would enable Bitcoin to handle DeFi applications, greatly expanding its use cases—from “digital gold” to “digital infrastructure.”

Global Deployment of ETF Products

From successful spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US to approvals in Europe and potential adoption in Asia, each step will introduce new levels of capital.

Practical Investment Advice

Step 1: Distinguish Between Investment and Speculation

Long-term holders should focus on fundamentals (scarcity, institutional adoption), while short-term traders should monitor technical and sentiment indicators. Avoid confusing the two to prevent FOMO and panic selling.

Step 2: Secure Storage Is Paramount

Making profits in a bull market is less meaningful than preserving gains. Hardware wallets, multi-signature solutions, regular audits—these seemingly tedious measures help maintain rationality during extreme market conditions.

Step 3: Track Genuine Demand

Pay attention to ETF net inflows, institutional holdings changes, and policy developments—these are deeper demand signals than technical indicators.

Step 4: Prepare for Pullbacks

Every bull run experiences 30-50% mid-term corrections. Do not see them as the end but as opportunities to add positions. Historically, the most profitable investors are not those chasing highs but those holding steady and adding during bear markets.

Looking to the Future from History

Bitcoin’s five complete cycles teach us that this is not a “one-time” investment opportunity. Each cycle repeats: scarcity drives → institutions enter → market FOMO → regulation adjustment → price correction → new buildup.

Current price at $88,730, though below the previous high, reflects normal market fluctuations—not a crash. Future rallies will not be linear, but as long as the three engines (halving pressure, institutional allocation, policy support) continue to operate, Bitcoin’s position as the core digital asset remains unchanged.

For investors, the key is not predicting the exact timing of the next bull run but being prepared and psychologically ready to act rationally when opportunities arise. Bitcoin’s rise from a low of $67.81 to over 1,200 times higher exemplifies the characteristic volatility of long-term wealth accumulation.