When will the Bitcoin bull market start? Analyzing the deep logic of the crypto market cycle.

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced several magnificent bull and bear cycles. The current market is at a critical juncture—although the price of $88.75K has not yet reached the all-time high of $126.08K, the divergence in market sentiment precisely reflects participants’ deep disagreements on the timing of the next bull run. So, when will the real bull market begin? We need to start from the market’s fundamental operating principles.

Signals of the Current Cycle: Why 2024-25 Marks the Beginning of a New Era

Unlike previous bull markets driven by specific mechanisms, this year’s upward momentum is fueled by an unprecedented variable—the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

In January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF, opening the door for traditional financial institutions to enter the Bitcoin market. By November, inflows into related ETFs exceeded $4.5 billion, with institutional holdings surpassing 10 million BTC. Among them, Blackstone’s IBIT product alone holds 467,000 BTC, making it one of the largest Bitcoin holders globally.

The significance of this change lies in: a paradigm shift from retail-driven to institution-led growth. Past rallies in 2013 (730% increase) and 2017 (1900% increase) were fueled by retail enthusiasm, whereas the current upward trajectory is driven by institutional capital, implying greater capital stability but also different volatility characteristics.

Halving Cycle: The Market’s Biological Clock

Bitcoin undergoes a halving every four years, a mechanism that fundamentally influences its price cycles. Historical data makes this clear:

• 2012 halving: Bitcoin surged by 5200%
• 2016 halving: Increased by 315%
• 2020 halving: Rose by 230%
• April 2024 halving: Climbed from $40K to $88K, an increase of over 120%

The halving triggers bull markets through a simple yet effective logic—supply growth slows down, while demand (especially from institutional buyers) continues to increase, creating an imbalance that drives prices higher. We are currently in the eighth month after the April 2024 halving. Based on historical patterns, a full bull cycle typically lasts 12-18 months.

On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth

Price movements alone are insufficient; on-chain data is the true barometer of market health:

Institutional accumulation: Large companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla have continued increasing their Bitcoin holdings in 2024. These “whale” investors tend to hold long-term rather than seek quick profits.

Exchange outflows: The available Bitcoin supply on exchanges has hit new lows, indicating holders are transferring assets to self-custody wallets, reflecting confidence in long-term holding.

Stablecoin inflows: Stablecoin balances on exchanges saw a significant rise in November, often a precursor to large buy orders—users are accumulating capital in preparation for entry at strategic points.

These three indicators point in the same direction, further confirming that the current market is in an accumulation phase rather than a distribution phase.

Regulation and Policy: New Catalysts

Traditionally, policy has been viewed as a risk factor for Bitcoin. However, recent developments are quite interesting—policy is gradually becoming a bullish driver.

Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed the “2024 Bitcoin Act,” which suggests that the U.S. Treasury should acquire 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. Although the proposal has not yet been finalized, its existence sends an important signal: government entities are beginning to seriously consider Bitcoin’s value.

More convincingly, precedents like El Salvador (which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021) and Bhutan (which holds over 13,000 BTC through state-owned investment firms) show that this is no longer just theoretical. If the U.S. initiates similar plans, the global demand for Bitcoin could increase exponentially.

The Hidden Power of Technological Upgrades

The Bitcoin network itself is evolving. Upgrades like OP_CAT could endow Bitcoin with new functionalities—including Layer-2 scaling solutions and support for simple DeFi applications. This evolution could transform Bitcoin from “digital gold” into a “general value carrier,” attracting new investor segments.

When Will the Bull Market Truly Start: Key Observation Points

Short-term (1-3 months): Monitor U.S. policy developments, especially discussions around Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Also, keep an eye on stablecoin flow data on major exchanges—significant inflows often precede major price movements within 30 days.

Medium-term (3-12 months): The next halving will occur in 2028, but before that, the key indicator will be the further increase in institutional holdings. When institutional holdings exceed 15% of circulating supply, it usually signals the establishment of a new upward cycle.

Long-term: The transition of Bitcoin from digital gold to a sovereign asset may take 2-3 years. Once completed, it will fundamentally change the composition of market participants.

Risk Warning: Bull Markets Have Limits

It should be noted that not all upward movements are “bull markets.” Although $88K is a 120% increase from the $40K at the start of the year, it still has about 30% to go to reach the all-time high of $126K. More importantly:

Volatility risk: While institutional funds are stable, quant funds’ stop-loss orders could trigger chain reactions at critical price levels.

Profit-taking pressure: As prices approach previous highs, early investors may seek to realize profits, creating short-term selling pressure.

Macroeconomic changes: Unexpected shifts in interest rate policies or inflation data could still impact market sentiment.

Insights for Different Investors

Long-term holders: The institutionalization trend favors you. As Bitcoin gradually integrates into traditional finance, dollar-cost averaging strategies will be more effective. The key is not to be scared off by short-term volatility.

Trading-oriented investors: Focus on the $85K and $90K technical levels. A confirmed breakout and stabilization above $90K naturally targets $100K next. Also, set stop-loss orders to hedge against black swan policy events.

Wait-and-see investors: If you’re still debating whether to enter, consider entering in stages: allocate 10% at $85K-$87K, another 10% after breaking and holding above $90K, and the remaining in batches. This way, you won’t miss the rally and can control risks.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s bull market will not arrive out of nowhere but will be woven from a series of micro-events (on-chain accumulation) and macro factors (policy, economic cycles). We are currently in the middle of this process—institutional buying continues unabated, policies are gradually becoming friendly, and on-chain signals are generally optimistic.

From a time perspective, a complete bull cycle usually spans 12-18 months around halving events. Since the April 2024 halving, less than a year has passed. According to historical patterns, the explosive growth may still be ahead—especially if more positive policy signals emerge from the U.S.

In summary: The bull market has already started, but the real fireworks may still be coming. Be prepared, but stay rational. The market always rewards patient and disciplined participants.