【2026 Stock Market and Gold Outlook: Three Major Variables Determine the Direction】As 2026 approaches, the market begins to reassess the core driver of the previous year's US stock performance—the massive investments in AI infrastructure and whether they can continue to deliver results. On one hand, the marginal changes in capital expenditure growth, industry competition, and investment returns will influence the valuation of the tech sector; on the other hand, the US economy faces dual pressures from persistent inflation and weakening employment, which may compress the room for monetary policy easing.

However, the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 may still support risk assets: if rate cuts are accompanied by moderate inflation decline and a soft landing of the economy, the stock market may continue to oscillate upward; if rate cuts are driven by increased recession pressures, profit downgrades could suppress valuations, and market divergence may intensify. The gold trend mainly depends on real interest rates and the US dollar: expectations of rate cuts generally favor gold prices, but if the economy experiences an unexpectedly soft landing or if rate cut expectations fall short, gold may also undergo a phased correction. Overall, the key in 2026 lies in the rate cut path, the realization of AI investment returns, and whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing.