Bitcoin Cycle Reversal: An Investment Guide from Historical Lows to New Highs

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $88.65K, still room to reach its all-time high of $126.08K. What’s different about this bull run? Instead of obsessing over price swings, it’s better to understand the logic driving each bull run.

2024-2025: A New Era Triggered by ETF Approvals and Halving

Data speaks: From the beginning of the year at $40K to now at $88.65K, Bitcoin has increased by 132%. What are the driving forces behind this?

In January 2024, the US SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, an event whose power has been seriously underestimated. Since then, institutional funds have been pouring in—November alone saw ETF inflows exceeding $450 million, with total inflows surpassing $28 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds over 467,000 BTC, and all Bitcoin ETFs combined hold over 100 million BTC.

Meanwhile, the April 2024 halving (the fourth) reduced miners’ rewards again, tightening supply, while demand has exploded. This combination has been powerful—until recently, Bitcoin broke through its previous all-time high of $126.08K.

On-chain data confirms this: large wallets continue to accumulate, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges hit multi-year lows, and institutions and whales are betting on the future.

History Repeats: Recognizing the Underlying Logic of Bull Runs

Why does Bitcoin’s price always fluctuate wildly? Looking at these four key cycles makes it clear.

2013’s Wild West Era: From $145 to $1,200, a 730% increase. Back then, the Internet was not widespread; only geeks and early believers were involved. The Cyprus banking crisis made some investors realize the value of decentralization, and public interest soared. But it didn’t last long—Mt. Gox exchange collapsed in 2014 after a hack, plunging Bitcoin into a three-year bear market.

2017 Retail Frenzy: From $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% increase. This cycle’s main players were retail investors. The ICO boom attracted many newcomers, exchanges became more user-friendly, and FOMO on social media peaked. The bubble burst, and in 2018, Bitcoin fell back to $3,200, down 84%.

2020-2021 Institutional Awakening: From $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%), then surged to $69,000. This time, it was different—public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla incorporated Bitcoin into their financial statements, using futures and non-US ETFs to rescue the situation. Institutional funds entered massively. The narrative of “digital gold” became especially prominent amid global loose monetary policies.

Current 2024-2025: From $40,000 to $88,650K, touching the all-time high of $126.08K. The elements from the previous three cycles are all present—halving, institutional participation, regulatory friendliness, macro uncertainty. But a new variable has emerged: the opening of the ETF door has changed liquidity dynamics entirely.

Halving Effect: Why Does Bitcoin Experience a Wave Every Four Years?

Bitcoin’s programming inherently limits its supply—halving occurs every four years, reducing the new coins miners receive. This is basic economics: supply decreases, demand remains stable or increases, and prices inevitably rise.

Historical data proves this:

• After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged 5,200%
• After the 2016 halving, it increased 315%
• After the 2020 halving, it rose 230%
• After the 2024 halving, we’ve already seen over 130% gains

This is no coincidence—it’s a cycle. The next halving is in 2028, so the bull run energy will likely continue in the coming years.

Key Signals: How to Judge When the Next Wave Will Come?

No need for crystal balls—let the data speak:

On-chain signals: When whales are accumulating, retail investors are panicking, and exchange reserves are decreasing rapidly, it often signals a bottom. When RSI breaks above 70 and trading volume spikes, technical indicators also give signals.

Macro signals: Interest rate policies, inflation data, geopolitical risks, regulatory attitudes—all are Bitcoin’s weather vanes. When traditional markets become more volatile, safe-haven funds tend to flow into Bitcoin.

Institutional signals: ETF approvals, favorable policies (such as the US potentially adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve), more countries and corporations adopting Bitcoin—all strengthen its legitimacy and liquidity.

Current positive signals include:

• Companies like MicroStrategy continue to add holdings
• Several countries (Bhutan, El Salvador) incorporate Bitcoin into their treasuries
• The US Bitcoin bill proposes the government reserves 1 million BTC
• Layer 2 solutions (like OP_CAT) may unlock DeFi potential

How to Bottom-Fish the Next Bull Run?

Step 1: Educate Yourself
Don’t rush in blindly. Understand Bitcoin’s fundamentals: why it exists, what problems it solves, and its risks. Read the whitepaper, follow industry news, track on-chain data.

Step 2: Make a Plan
Clarify three questions: Are you aiming for quick profits or long-term holding? How much loss can you tolerate? How much capital can you invest? Bitcoin is not an all-in game—gradual accumulation, stop-losses, and risk hedging are the right approach.

Step 3: Choose the Right Tools
Find a secure and reputable trading platform—with strong encryption, 2FA, regular audits, and cold storage. After purchase, if holding long-term, transfer to a hardware wallet and keep your private keys safe.

Step 4: Track Key Data
Build your own information sources. Follow official announcements, industry reports, on-chain indicators. The Bitcoin market changes rapidly; information asymmetry means being uninformed is like being cut.

Step 5: Mental Preparation
Bitcoin’s 50% swings are common. If a 20% drop causes panic, this market may not suit you. Set stop-loss points, stick to discipline, and avoid FOMO-driven decisions.

Step 6: Tax Planning
Tax rates on Bitcoin gains vary by country. If your region has tax obligations, consult financial and tax professionals in advance—don’t be caught off guard.

Imagination of Bitcoin’s Future

Government Reserves: A US senator proposed the government acquire 1 million BTC as a strategic reserve. If this becomes reality, demand could double. Bhutan has quietly accumulated 13,000 BTC, and El Salvador has adopted it as legal tender. National-level adoption could rewrite Bitcoin’s narrative.

Technological Upgrades: New codes like OP_CAT could enable Bitcoin to support Layer 2 scaling and DeFi applications, evolving from “digital gold” to “digital all-in-one asset.” Imagine running stablecoins, lending protocols, derivatives on Bitcoin.

Liquidity Deepening: With more ETFs, funds, and derivatives launching, Bitcoin’s market depth will increase. Large transactions will no longer easily crash the market, which is beneficial for price discovery.

Accelerated Adoption: Each bull run attracts new players—2013 was geeks, 2017 retail, 2021 institutions, 2024 governments and mainstream finance. Who will be next? Central banks? Pension funds?

Final Words

Bitcoin’s 18-year history teaches us a simple truth: every crash is the prelude to the next surge. Risks and opportunities are two sides of the same coin.

The current price of $88.65K is not far from the all-time high of $126.08K, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to rush. The real profit opportunities often appear when no one is watching. Do your homework, control risks, stay patient—your next 10x or 100x story might be in your investment list.

Remember: Bitcoin won’t make everyone rich, but it can help those who are prepared seize opportunities.