From a historical cycle perspective: Is the Bitcoin bull market really coming?

Bitcoin is a topic that never lacks discussion in the community. Since its inception in 2009, this largest crypto asset has experienced multiple rounds of intense price volatility. Recently, BTC surged from around $40,000 at the beginning of the year to $88.59K, prompting many to ask: Is this a signal of the next bull market?

The Underlying Logic of Bull Market Cycles: Why Does BTC Always Rise and Fall?

You may notice a pattern: Bitcoin’s ups and downs are not random but follow certain principles.

Halving events are the core drivers. Bitcoin undergoes a “halving” approximately every four years—reducing mining rewards by half, which directly decreases the supply of new coins. Historical data shows that each halving is followed by a rally:

• After 2012 halving: approximately 5,200% increase
• After 2016 halving: approximately 315% increase
• After 2020 halving: approximately 230% increase
• The fourth halving in April 2024 was no exception, with the price climbing from $40,000 onwards

This is not coincidence; supply economics are at play—less supply, stable or increasing demand, and prices naturally go up.

2013-2017-2021: Commonalities and Differences in Three Bull Markets

First Awakening (2013)

In 2013, Bitcoin was still very “primitive.” The price rose from $145 in May to nearly $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. During this period:

• Driving forces: Early adopters entering, Cyprus banking crisis triggering safe-haven demand
• Obstacles: Mt. Gox exchange hack led to market confidence collapse, with prices dropping below $300 in 2014

Key takeaway: Poor infrastructure makes black swan events more likely.

Second Surge (2017)

2017 was a retail investor frenzy. Price soared from $1,000 to $20,000, a 1,900% increase. At that time:

• Driving forces: ICO craze attracting many new retail investors, exchanges and wallets becoming widespread, media hype
• Peak to trough: Dropped to $3,200 in 2018, an 84% decline

This bull market taught the market a lesson: retail FOMO-driven rallies come fast and go fast.

Third Maturity (2020-2021)

This time was different. Price rose from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. The difference:

• Driving forces: Major companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla buying in; PayPal and Bitcoin futures launching; institutional capital pouring in
• New narrative: “Digital gold,” a tool against inflation

In July 2021, prices briefly dipped to $30,000 but then recovered. This shows that institutional investors’ “stickiness” is stronger than retail.

2024-2025: New Playgrounds in the ETF Era

The current situation is the most different.

In January, the US SEC officially approved a spot Bitcoin ETF—meaning pension funds, fund managers, and traditional giants can buy BTC directly without worrying about private keys or cold wallets. The results?

• ETF net inflows exceeded $2.8 billion (by November)
• BlackRock’s IBIT alone holds 467,000 BTC
• On-chain data shows continuous institutional buying

Meanwhile:

• MicroStrategy and other listed companies continue accumulating
• The halving in April arrived as scheduled
• Positive policy expectations for Trump (pro-crypto stance)
• US “BITCOIN Act” proposes the Treasury to acquire 1 million BTC over 5 years

All these factors pushed the price from the start of the year to $88.59K. Some analysts even predict it could break $100K.

But this is not without risks.

Current Bull Market Risk Checklist

1. High-level consolidation is normal
Bitcoin is no longer a zero-to-one story but a process of optimization and refinement. After reaching certain heights, retail investors take profits, leading to frequent pullbacks. A fluctuation from $89.57K to $86.89K within 24 hours is normal.

2. Institutional entry ≠ perpetual rise
ETF inflows attract big money, but also increase short-term traders. Once market sentiment shifts, these funds can exit quickly.

3. Regulations are still evolving
While the US approved ETFs, global attitudes toward crypto remain inconsistent. Any major policy change in a large country can trigger significant market volatility.

4. Macroeconomic factors influence
Interest rate changes, inflation data, recession risks—all can divert investor funds.

5. Competition pressure
Chains like ETH, SOL, and others are also advancing, potentially diverting attention from Bitcoin.

What Should Investors Do?

Step 1: Clarify your goals

Are you aiming for long-term holding (e.g., over 5 years), or short-term trading?

• Long-term holders: Focus on halving cycles and institutional adoption; consider dollar-cost averaging; avoid all-in positions
• Short-term traders: Monitor technical indicators (RSI, moving averages) and on-chain data; set stop-loss orders

Step 2: Choose a reliable exchange

Safety first. Ensure the exchange has:

• 2FA authentication
• Cold storage options
• Regular security audits
• Sufficient liquidity

Step 3: Manage your funds wisely

• Avoid leverage (unless you’re a professional trader)
• Store long-term holdings in hardware wallets
• Invest only what you can afford to lose
• Diversify risk; don’t go all-in on Bitcoin

Step 4: Keep learning

Follow:

• Bitcoin network upgrades (like proposals such as OP_CAT)
• Policy news (changes in countries’ attitudes toward crypto)
• On-chain data (whale movements, exchange inflows/outflows)
• Macro indicators

Step 5: Build psychological resilience

This is often overlooked. BTC’s volatility can evoke extreme greed and fear. Remember:

• Don’t get overly excited at $100K; it doesn’t mean the rally will continue
• Don’t panic at $60K; history shows recovery is possible
• Stick to your plan; don’t be swayed by market emotions

When Will the Next Real Bull Market Come?

Honestly, no one can predict precisely. But here are some signals to watch:

Short-term (next 3-6 months):

• Are ETF inflows continuing positively?
• Will Trump’s policies materialize?
• Will there be new policy incentives by year-end?

Mid-term (next 1-2 years):

• The next halving around 2028
• Expect another supply shock
• How large will institutional holdings become?

Long-term (5+ years):

• Will Bitcoin become a strategic reserve for any country?
• Will Layer 2 solutions and Lightning Network solve scalability issues?
• Will fiat devaluation push demand for BTC as a safe haven?

Final Words

Bitcoin’s bull market doesn’t appear out of nowhere; it results from a combination of supply shortages, institutional recognition, and friendly policies. The 2024-2025 cycle is indeed more “mature” than previous ones—no longer just hype and FOMO, but a market with substantial institutional participation.

But maturity doesn’t mean stability. History shows each bull run is followed by corrections or bear markets. The key is:

1. Do your homework — understand Bitcoin’s fundamentals
2. Manage risks — reasonable allocations, avoid excessive leverage
3. Stay rational — don’t be misled by short-term volatility
4. Keep learning — the market is evolving, so should you

No matter when the next bull run arrives, those who are well-prepared will be the ones to truly benefit.