"UNI Value Upgrade" The first stress test on the road, and my interpretation of the test results is: Passed.

As of December 26, according to CoinMarketCap, at the time of writing, UNI (Uniswap) is trading at $5.99, up 3.41% in 24 hours, with a high of $6.44 and a low of $5.26. The current market cap is approximately $3.778 billion, an increase of $124 million from yesterday.

The core contradiction in current UNI price fluctuations: the long-term fundamental leap versus the short-term market liquidity and gaming pattern conflicts. This is precisely the scenario most familiar to seasoned traders—the oscillation of prices during the value discovery process.

1. The essence of the event: From "air governance" to "cash flow assets" coming of age
This proposal signifies an "intergenerational upgrade" for UNI. It fundamentally changes UNI's token economics:
1. From "governance rights" to "profit rights": UNI transforms from a "vote ticket" into a "yield-bearing asset" that shares the protocol's real income. This is a milestone in capturing value as a leading DeFi infrastructure.
2. From "inflation model" to "deflation model": The immediate destruction of 100 million tokens (about 10% of circulating supply) plus ongoing buyback and burn mechanisms create strong deflationary expectations. In the crypto world, deflation narratives are a key long-term value foundation.
This fully validates our core logic for choosing UNI as the "central commander": focusing on industry fundamentals that are still building and capable of generating real cash flow during a bear market.

2. Why does "positive news lead to decline"? The classic script repeatedly played out in three bull-bear cycles
What you see now as "rising on good news then falling back" has played out in 2017 with ETH (post-DAO), and in 2020 with COMP (after liquidity mining launch). The internal logic is consistent:
1. The game of "buy the rumor, sell the fact": smart money (whales, institutions) had already positioned during proposal discussions or even drafting stages. When positive news is 100% confirmed and retail sentiment peaks, it’s the best time for them to take profits and complete the "harvesting" of retail investors.
2. Deteriorating liquidity environment: Currently during the Christmas holiday, market liquidity is drying up. Small sell orders can create deep gaps, while buying power is weak and unable to form effective support. This amplifies the price decline and perception.
3. Short-term pain and misunderstanding for LPs: Some liquidity providers see only a portion of their earnings being taken (16-25%), causing panic and withdrawals. This is a shortsighted behavior, as they fail to see that the long-term appreciation of token value and deflation-driven price increases will far surpass these short-term fee losses. The market needs time to digest and rebalance.

Conclusion: The short-term price decline results from market gaming and liquidity dilemmas, unrelated to the fundamental long-term improvements of UNI. This creates a "golden pit."

3. Adjustments and confirmations to previous strategic plans (you can first review my December 25th post "2026 Cycle Potential Altcoins Observation List")
1. The core logic shifts from "guesswork" to "confirmation": The proposal passing means UNI's "value capture" narrative has shifted from blueprint to reality. This strengthens our conviction for long-term holding. It’s no longer just a good idea but a well-executed model.
2. The superiority of "perceived position" order prices: Our previous setting of a $5.40 perceived order is now seen as wise. The market's short-term low point (at $5.26) is very close to this level. If executed, it would be a brilliant move—buying core assets at panic prices amid major positive fundamentals.
3. The trigger conditions for "main force positions" need new observation points:
Original condition (price consolidating and shrinking volume between $5.50-$6.20) remains valid.
New key observation: monitor on-chain data to see if whale addresses are re-accumulating UNI below $5.50. This will be a leading signal that "the shakeout is over, main players are re-entering."
4. Adjust stop-loss levels (becoming more stringent): Due to substantial fundamental improvements, we can slightly raise UNI's strict stop-loss from $4.80 to $5.00 (or the psychological threshold of $5.10). Below $5.00 is the "no-value support zone" before the proposal's approval. If it falls back, it indicates the market is ignoring this major upgrade, and the logic may short-term fail, requiring exit.
5. Maintain target levels but with increased confidence: Short-term target $7.50 - $8.00, cycle target $10.00+. The deflation model and cash flow will continue to support its valuation.

4. Action analysis
1. Hold steady, maintain appreciation: Keep the existing $5.40 perceived order for UNI. The market is creating trading opportunities for you now. If executed, smile and accept this market gift of "mispricing."
2. Strengthen monitoring, wait for signals: Focus on whether in the next 1-2 weeks, UNI can establish a solid bottom in the $5.50 - $5.80 range (characterized by multiple dips quickly pulled back, shrinking volume). This is the key pattern for "main force" entry.
3. Ignore noise, focus on fundamentals: Forget about data like "24-hour change of 3.41%." The real focus should be: "Is the protocol fee switch successfully enabled?", "Are the initial burns completed on time?", "Is weekly trading volume healthy?" These are the core factors determining UNI's long-term value.

Final words:
The most fascinating aspect of the market is that it always makes mistakes in extreme emotions. Using short-term liquidity crises-driven prices to buy assets with fundamentally transformative long-term prospects is one of the core profit strategies through bull and bear cycles.
UNI is completing its coming of age, and market panic is providing you with a ticket to attend the ceremony at a discount. Stay calm, execute your plan strictly.
#UNI #2026行情预测
The above analysis and interpretation do not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware of market volatility risks.